O financial market again slightly reduced the projection for the IPCA (Broad National Consumer Price Index) of 2026, for the third time in the year, according to the Focus bulletin released this Monday (19).
The experts consulted by the Central Bank now see Brazilian inflation at 4% this year, slightly below the last projection of 4.02%. For 2027, the market maintains its projection of 3.80% at the end of the year and 3.50% in 2028.
The center of the official target for the IPCA is 3%, with a tolerance margin of 1.5 percentage points more or less, that is, up to 4.5%. Inflation closed 2025 at 4.26%, below the target ceiling for the first time since 2023, as released by IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) this month.
In relation to GDP (Gross Domestic Product), Selic and exchange rate, the medians remained unchanged for 2026.
The market expects the interest rate end 2026 in 12,25% per year.
Bets for the start of the interest rate drop cycle by the BC (Central Bank) in March gained more strength among banking institutions after the tougher tone from the authority in the last meeting of 2025, according to Febrabran (Brazilian Federation of Banks).
The survey showed that 70% of the banks surveyed believe in the Selic cut, currently at 15%, at the Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting in March.
In 2027, Selic should remain at 10.50%, according to projections from the Focus bulletin. For 2028, the projection for the interest rate remained at 10%.
Regarding exchange rateeconomists’ projection for the end of this year remains at R$5.50. For 2027, the market estimate was raised to R$5.51, while it remains at R$5.52 for 2028.
The growth of GDP Brazilian, in turn, should be 1.80% in 2026 and 2027. In 2028, the projection for economic growth is 2%, according to forecasts compiled by the BC.
