Three open fronts maintain instability in having as a common denominator the policies of the US government in as many wars. On two of these fronts, in Iran and the Gaza Strip, the US president envisions historic changes and upheavals, while in the third, that of Syria, he keeps the bar of expectations noticeably lower.
The USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group sailed into the Arabian Sea off the coast of Iran, filling a gap in US military capabilities ten days ago when Trump decided not to respond with bombings to the Tehran regime’s bloody crackdown on protests. “A large armada is heading for Iran. I would prefer nothing happens, but we are watching them very closely.” Trump said on a flight back from Davos to Washington.
The protests have died down, but the cauldron is boiling and one of the scenarios wants the Americans to Ali Khamenei. Responding to an Iranian general’s warning that if he killed Khamenei he would suffer the same fate, Trump stressed that he had given very clear orders that if that happened, “wipe Iran off the face of the Earth”. Rhetoric is escalating again, although analysts point out that the Gulf monarchies would rather benefit from Tehran’s weakening and gradual changes in Iran than suffer Iranian retaliation and the wider consequences of a US or Israeli attack on the regime.
If in Iran the US is betting on destabilizing the Shiite regime, in Syria they are doing the opposite by investing in strengthening the former Al-Qaeda warlord and current president Ahmed al Saraawhich acts in full coordination with Turkey.
Carrying out Ankara’s “contract” and with Washington’s green light, government troops attacked the Syrian Democratic Forces, which are mainly Kurdish and refused to join the new regime’s army. Damascus troops have crossed the Euphrates and are besieging Kobani, the Kurdish stronghold in Northern Syria (which IS had attempted to capture in 2014 with the tacit support of Turkey) while taking control of oil fields in Eastern Syria.
Free thousands of jihadists
now see US allies aligning with their enemies and pressuring the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces to join the Syrian army. Thousands of jihadists have been released from Kurdish-controlled prisons and camps – some walking free and others being moved to neighboring Iraq as part of a US security operation – while the UN records a new wave of refugees with more than 130,000 displaced.
As the Americans prepare to withdraw troops from Syria, Israel’s services are watching with concern Turkey’s increasing military penetration into the country, noting, among other things, the installation of a Turkish radar at the Damascus airport.
Mockups and bombs
At the same time, the fate of the Palestinians of Gaza is being played out. The reality for two million civilians trying to survive in the rubble, cold and mud under sporadic, almost daily, Israeli bombardment stands in stark contrast to the mock-ups and glossy posters of the future Riviera presented by the Americans in Davos.
Hamas has not laid down its arms, the Israeli cordon in Gaza City remains suffocating while the opening of the Rafah border crossing is postponed from week to week. More than 230,000 girls and women (including 15,000 pregnant women) have limited access to health services, according to the United Nations. Three more Palestinian photojournalists were killed by Israeli shelling last week in Gaza, while in occupied East Jerusalem, Israeli authorities demolished the building housing the administration of the UN agency for Palestine refugees (UNRWA).
