The creation of the so-called , announced by , is less a diplomatic initiative and more an attempt to demonstrate power. By proposing a parallel international mechanism, Trump tries to circumvent decades of institutional construction of multilateralism, creating a space in which the rules do not constrain him, and in which he himself calls the shots.
For Brazil, the movement places it in a complex situation. Accepting Trump’s invitation means legitimizing an alternative architecture that empties the Brazilian government and other organizations that the Brazilian government historically defends. Refusing, on the other hand, could cost diplomatic capital at a time when the American president’s goodwill has been made explicit.
Not by chance, the topic gained traction on the networks. In the more than 100 thousand Telegram groups analyzed in real time by , more than 70% of the messages are in support of Trump’s initiative, considering only those who expressed an explicit opinion on the topic.
This external dilemma adds to the risk of international political interference in the Brazilian electoral process. On monitored networks, around 40% of messages connecting Trump to Brazil mention , almost always in a tone of warning or suspicion. An upset with Trump at this time could mean an increase in this fear, taking the focus away from national politics and creating an additional element of concern.
In the right field, the reorganization is visible. Out of the game, he appears as the big name, but without unanimity. , despite r, is pressured to assume the role of representative of the right. Tarcísio’s support video was read as an ambiguous gesture, in which, despite not speaking as a candidate, he signals alignment with the mobilized base.
The call promoted by the federal deputy and other names on the right helps to understand the moment. Palver data shows that the event did not explode on the networks. Approximately 35% of mentions were favorable, while 45% were critical, with the remainder neutral. Still, the point is not volume, but quality of mobilization. Nikolas managed to activate a public that does not depend exclusively on Bolsonarism, projecting himself as a vector of the street and political imagination.
The other axis that runs through the entire debate is the case. With each new revelation, the subject remains at the top of the digital agenda. Mentions of the bank grew by more than 60% in January, driven by reports involving the minister and family assets. In the groups analyzed by Palver, around 70% of mentions of Toffoli have a negative tone, with terms such as “conflict of interest”, “shielding” and “family” dominating the conversation.
In this scenario, Lula appears less as a protagonist and more as an institutional representative. The association between the government and the Supreme Court is explored on the networks, where almost half of the messages cited also mention the Planalto, generally to suggest mutual protection. It is the logic of the system against the anti-system, reinforced by every institutional noise.
The thread that weaves together Trump, the street and elections is the erosion of trust. With the current context of institutional politics favoring anti-system discourse, institutions no longer play the role of origin and begin to be understood as participants in the electoral dispute. The decisions that the STF, as the most prominent case, will take in the coming months as an institution could either deepen the crisis of institutional trust in the country, or respond to the population’s desires and create, taking the organization out of the electoral debate.
LINK PRESENT: Did you like this text? Subscribers can access seven free accesses from any link per day. Just click the blue F below.
