The BC (Central Bank) leadership is holding the first Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting of 2026 this week, with investors already anticipating the decision to park interest rates at the current level of 15% — the highest in almost 20 years.
Market thermometers and analyzes reinforce that the expected movement to loosen the Selic rate should continue until March, given diffuse data on domestic activity and the intensification of global tensions.
The Market Expectations System, calculated weekly by the BC, shows that the median of economic agents is betting on interest rates remaining at 15% this Wednesday (28).
Estimates indicate that interest rates will close the year at 12%, and should not fall below double digits before the end of 2027.
Copom option contracts traded on B3 point in the same direction, with 83% of investors seeing interest rates unchanged again.
The expectation of further maintenance of the BC is supported by indications from the president of the municipality, Gabriel Galípolo, of the dependence on data for decision-making.
Recent labor market figures show that , indicating a still buoyant economy.
On the other hand, the , while the dollar maintains signs of cooling in the domestic market.
In a note, Santander analysts reinforce that the scenario since the beginning of 2026 is very similar to that of December, when the e chose to leave interest rates at 15% for the fourth decision in a row.
With these signs still pointing different paths, it is expected that the BC will continue to maintain the Selic this week.
“Disinflation has progressed, services inflation and the labor market remain firm, and economic activity demonstrates a heterogeneous moderation, consistent with the maintenance of a contractionary stance”, states the team of analysts.
The external factor also corroborates the perception of postponement of the interest rate cut.
Since the last Copom meeting, the geopolitical scenario has become more challenging with the United States’ military action in Venezuela and the intensification of tensions with Donald Trump’s attacks against European allies.
Furthermore, since the end of last year a pause in the Fed’s (Federal Reserve) cutting cycle has been expected, after three consecutive cuts throughout 2025.
Another factor that weighs in the postponement of the court decision now is the restructuring of the BC’s board of directors.
The first Copom of 2026 will have two fewer seats with the departure of the directors of Organization of the Financial System, Renato Gomes, and of Economic Policy, Diogo Guillen.
Both are the last appointed by former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) to the top of the monetary authority. Now, it is up to President Lula (PT) to present new names to fill the vacancies.
Change of speech
Despite the expected maintenance, analysts point out that the BC may begin to show signs of monetary easing in the statement published with this Wednesday’s decision.
Over the last few months, Copom has adopted a more “hawkish” — market jargon for tougher speech —, reinforcing on several occasions the mantra of keeping interest rates high for.
Goldman Sachs projects an adjustment in the tone of the statement, although without a clear sign of a strong easing of monetary policy.
The change, analysts wrote, could come with a text indication that interest rates have remained restrictive for a reasonably long period, and the strategy is working as expected.
“By doing so, the Copom would maintain the flexibility to evaluate the possibility of a rate cut at the March meeting, employing cautious language that avoids making definitive commitments in relation to such a measure.”
Santander’s analysis team points in a similar direction, despite showing more caution with changes in the tone of the statement.
“Although it is not our main scenario, the Copom can introduce some flexibility for future meetings, without explicitly signaling an imminent monetary easing cycle.”
