In the early days of 2026, United States foreign policy entered a new route of clash with Latin America.
The US military attack that resulted in marked not only a geopolitical turning point in the region, but opened what behind-the-scenes analysts are already calling a “new phase” of the Donald Trump administration with Cuba in the firing line.
A operation in Caracas was just the prologue. For Trump and his Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, what is at stake is much bigger than the apparent normalization of a Venezuelan crisis: it is about reaffirming American hegemony in the Western Hemisphere, breaking political resistance that has challenged Washington for decades.
Continuation of the offensive
Shortly after the action against Maduro, the White House intensified criticism of Havana. Trump publicly repeated that Cuba “will not survive without Venezuelan oil”, inviting the Cuban government to negotiate with Washington before it was too late.
This speech is not casual. He follows Trump’s rhetorical pattern – very tough with socialist regimes in the region – supported and shaped, behind the scenes, by a man who knows Cuba like few others in the American high echelon: Marco Rubio.
Strategist behind the turnaround
Rubio, a native of Miami and son of Cuban exiles, is not just a symbolic figure in the administration: he has a firm influence on the formulation of Trump’s foreign policy, especially with regard to Cuba and Venezuela. In the first days after taking office as Secretary of State, Rubio was seen alongside Trump in press conferences reinforcing the hard line and directly threatening Havana.
Sources close to the administration suggest that it was Rubio who pushed the narrative that culminated in the intervention in Venezuela, using accusations of links to drug trafficking and terrorism to justify actions that defy international law, a stance that, behind the scenes, has been called a revival of the Trump Corollary of the Monroe Doctrine.
Analysts also highlight that Rubio’s ultimate objective, aligned with part of the Republican establishment, would be the end of the Cuban communist regime. Under his influence, Trump went from verbally threatening Havana to considering concrete measures, including naval blockades to cut off the oil still reaching the island.
Mexico in the crossfire
Meanwhile, Mexico – which became one of the main suppliers of oil to Cuba after the drop in Venezuelan shipments – finds itself in a delicate position. Mexican diplomatic and government sources are internally analyzing the possibility of reducing or interrupting these shipments, not out of ideological conviction, but out of fear of economic or political retaliation from Washington.
This calculation reflects a side effect of Trump’s strategy: the pressure on Cuba directly influences third countries, messing with essential bilateral relations, such as that between Mexico and the United States, precisely when Washington also wants to reevaluate issues such as migration and commercial cooperation.
This is not just about ideology or aggressive rhetoric. Recent US action signals an attempt to reconfigure the political order in the Caribbean and Latin America, placing non-aligned regimes under intense economic, diplomatic and – possibly – military pressure.
Cuba, devoid of major natural resources like Venezuelan oil, appears more vulnerable than it has ever been. Trump has already announced that there will be no more oil or funds for Havana, an ultimatum that could further deepen the island’s economic and social crisis.
Behind this policy is an administration that is not afraid to return to old formulas of unilateral confrontation, driven by a Secretary of State who has personal motivations and clear regime change strategies. Whether Cuba will be the next target of direct intervention remains to be seen, but behind the scenes in Washington, many believe that this is the new frontier of Trumpist diplomacy on the continent.
