The front of the war between Russia and Ukraine and they are dominated by the current situation of the conflict, but few stop to think about other aspects, such as, for example, what the Russians think of this war and of . Nobody better than him Russian sociologist Lev Gudkov.
In a long, Gudkov details the current situation in Putin’s Russia and how the street sees the entire conflict and relationship with Europe, always in tug-of-war for much of history, centuries of each other’s backs, and others of mutual rapprochement.
We have been here since Russia invaded Ukrainian territory. It was February 24, 2022 and the situation in 2026 is an uncomfortable mix of fatigue, conformity and latent aggression. This is how Gudkov, current director of the Levada Center, describes it: the most important independent demoscopic institution in Russia and one of the few that continue to measure the real pulse of the country despite pressure from the Kremlin.
The sociologist draws a precise portrait of a country where war is no longer experienced with enthusiasm, but neither does it generate an opposition capable of challenging power. The most striking fact is that 66% of Russians now support peace negotiationswhile only 26% want to continue the war, the lowest level recorded since February 2022.
Trump, the factor that no one expected
This turn is not explained by a change in attitude towards Moscow, but by an external actor. According to Gudkov, the figure of the US president, Donald Trumphas reactivated expectations of peace among the Russian population.
“Russians believe Trump can bring peace”he explains. After his return to the White House, sympathy towards the US and towards Trump has skyrocketed, something unthinkable just two years ago. Many citizens project hope on him for a solution to the conflict, convinced that will put pressure on Ukraine and understand “Russia’s interests”.
Thus, the paradox arises that they do not trust that Putin wants to stop the war, but they do trust that a foreign president will do so.
War fatigue, but without rupture
Although a majority still formally supports the war, Gudkov detects fatigue, diffuse discontent and uncertainty. The population assumes that Putin will prolong the conflict “to the point of complete exhaustion,” something Russians are accustomed to.
However, there are key contradictions:
- He 70% I would approve of Putin deciding tomorrow stop the war.
- But he 60% would reject a withdrawal of Russian troops from the occupied territories in Ukraine.
For Gudkov, the explanation lies in the redefinition of the conflict: it is no longer perceived as a war against Ukraine, but as a war against the West. This is where the eternal propaganda comes in.
Propaganda and the external enemy
The Kremlin’s narrative has been extraordinarily effective. Today, only 16% to 17% of Russians blame Ukraine for the war. Instead, 70% point to NATO and 80% to the United States as responsible. Only 6% to 8% blame Russia. “The responsibility has completely shifted outwards,” Gudkov summarizes.
This story has permeated fertile ground: inferiority complexes accumulated since the 90s, when Russia failed to transform at the pace of other Eastern European countries after the fall of communism.
From frustration to resentment
Gudkov recalls that In the nineties up to 60% of Russians wanted to join NATO and the EU. That scenario was gradually broken since 2003, when Putin began to promote anti-Western discourse, reinforced after enlargement and the so-called “color revolutions” in Georgia and Ukraine.
Today things are radically different: 92% of Russians believe that their country is surrounded by enemies, the highest level since 1994. “Humiliation has transformed into hatred towards the West”afirma Gudkov.
Phrases like “they have never loved us” or “they want to destroy us” are repeated in the surveys. War fuels a desire for revenge and recognition, more symbolic than territorial.
There are also analysts who see more twists and turns in the situation and blame the invisible “hand” of the US or China, for preventing Europe and Russia from ever being allies as a geostrategic keybe that as it may, and even less so a Eurasian union so dreamed of by some.
Territories, symbols and confusion
Despite the Kremlin’s emphasis on Donbas and other occupied regions, Gudkov maintains that The territories are more symbolic than real for the population. Most would not know how to locate them on a map and, when asked for specific details of a peace plan, the dominant response is: “I don’t know.”
The important thing is not so much the geography as the narrative of victory. A Russian withdrawal from Donbas would be seen as a total defeat and could open a crisis within the power elite. A frozen conflict, on the other hand, would be accepted with resignation.
Silence, fear and private life
War has become a topic that many prefer not to talk about. Half of the population has stopped following news about Ukraine. Not only because of fear of repression, but because of a defensive and conformist attitude: “I live my life, I don’t want problems”.
This behavior is especially strong among young people. The elderly, especially men, continue to show more bellicose attitudes, especially in Moscow, where Gudkov detects an increasingly imperial and militarized climate.
Soldiers, money and wear
Support for enlisting as a contract soldier also falls. If in 2023 more than 50% supported a family member signing a contract, now only 30% do so. War is perceived as a meat grinder, and money—some 2,200 euros per monthmore than double the average salary—no longer compensates for the vital risk, except in the poorest regions.
Economy, illusions and “Russian patience”
Although some sectors benefited from military spending, inflation has eroded incomes and growth is slowing. People save, delay purchases and trust that “everything will get better”.
“Illusions are the most effective instrument of power”says Gudkov. Maintaining hope, even if it is unfounded, sustains the regime. For now, he concludes, Putin faces no immediate internal threat. What dominates is what he calls “Russian patience”: endure, adapt and wait.
