managers place their bets on winners and losers in 2026

In the United States, it begins with the spotlight on the internal economy focused on financial accessibility and with the renewal of the commercial pressure policy and threats of intervention on the external flank. This requires constant renewal on the part of resource managers to identify risks and opportunities

The Janus Henderson team sees consumers and companies benefiting from the effects of legislation on tax cuts and deregulation, approved last year, although it recognizes the possibility of a volatile scenario in the short term, while some internal impact from the tariffs promoted in 2025 is expected.

In the stock market, there is good possibility for the health and biotechnology sectors and volatility with energy and public services segments.

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See below opinions from Janus Herderson Investors portfolio managers for the second year of the Trump administration.

Internal consumption

This year the United States will celebrate 250 years since its founding as an independent country. There are still doubts whether the festivities will translate into stronger economic growth, but there are factors that should boost economic activity in 2026.

According to Alex Veroude, head of fixed income at Janus, consumers and businesses will benefit from the tax cuts implemented in the “One Big Beautiful Bill”. Deregulation has the potential to ease corporate barriers and encourage mergers and acquisitions, he says. This is coupled with the fact that monetary policy in the US will likely see further interest rate cuts.

On the negative side, Verouse assesses that the distorted impacts on data following the government shutdown between October and November last year could be a source of volatility in the short term, particularly in relation to employment. “Furthermore, while we can argue that we are past the peak of tariff volatility – unless the Supreme Court rejects them – we still need to be alert to any secondary effects on inflation.”

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Fixed income

For Daniel Siluk, global director of short duration and liquidity bonds, in turn, he makes a comparison between the Biden and Trump administrations: “the government expansion initiatives of the Biden era gave way to the fiscal expansion of the Trump era”, he said, highlighting that, at the same time, the Federal Reserve (Fed) seeks to reduce the maturity period of its bonds, eliminating one of the marginal buyers in this market segment.

“Efforts to stimulate growth through aggressive fiscal policy, especially amid already high inflation, have increased investor concerns about the potential for upward pressure on sovereign yields and yield curve dynamics,” he comments.

Siluk maintains that although a significant increase in the slope of the curve has not yet appeared, the combination of increased supply and changing demand warrants rigorous monitoring. “We believe the balance of risks currently favors short-term maturities at the front end of the curve.”

Securities backed by mortgages

Nick Childs, director of Structured and Quantitative Fixed Income, and John Kerschner, global director of Securitized Products, highlight in their analysis that President Trump has proposed several initiatives aimed at addressing the issue of housing affordability.

The recent directive for government-sponsored entities (GSEs), Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, to purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) aims to lower mortgage interest rates.

“The GSEs have already been purchasing MBS at a significant pace since mid-2025, and we expected the purchases to continue and for national banks to have an increasing presence. However, we believe the impact on mortgage interest rates will be modest because, unlike the Fed, the GSEs typically do not take duration from the market; instead, they issue callable bonds and/or hedge, and this exposure needs to be supported by other market participants.”

The two directors say they remain optimistic regarding the real estate market in general and, in particular, real estate credit. Although the housing market has slowed down, there is still demand. If interest rates fall, and we believe the Fed is likely to make at least one or two cuts, that will be very good for home appreciation.

Healthcare and Biotechnology Stocks

Sean Carroll, Client Portfolio Manager, recalls that for most of last year, political uncertainty dominated the healthcare industry, leading to a period of underperformance that resulted in some of the lowest relative price-to-earnings ratios in the industry’s history. But she warns that, for 2026, some regulatory risks have started to diminish. “Investors, for example, now see a way around costly pharmaceutical tariffs and have greater clarity about drug pricing reform.”

Additionally, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has also demonstrated its support for a strong biopharmaceutical industry in the US, having met most of its 2025 review deadlines and introducing new programs to accelerate drug approvals. “Therefore, we see a favorable scenario for healthcare stocks to stand out in 2026.”

Energy and Utilities Stocks

For Noah Barrett, Research analyst, the situation in Venezuela highlighted how quickly geopolitical changes can propagate through energy markets. He says that while short-term price impacts have been moderate, the longer-term outlook depends on policy clarity, infrastructure investment and greater confidence in political stability.

“For investors, these events highlight the value of an active, disciplined and prepared management approach to deal with volatility, assess each company’s specific exposures and position themselves to take advantage of opportunities as the situation evolves,” he says.

In the public services sector, with the mid-term elections in 2026, discussions about the affordability of energy bills for consumers will continue to be an important topic, says the analyst, given the large volume of investments needed to meet the expected energy demand.

“Regulated utilities are probably under the most pressure, as they represent the face of the sector, with a business model based on capital investments (Capex) to expand the regulated asset base and obtain a regulated return on that investment”, he states.

For him, if the affordability of energy bills for consumers becomes a politically sensitive topic, we could see discussions about lower permitted growth in the regulated asset base or reduced permitted returns on equity, both negative factors for public service companies.

Industrial/Materials

In the assessment of David Chung, Research analyst, developments and updates on tariffs, geopolitical stability and consumer and business confidence continue to be the main areas to be observed for a possible short-term recovery in the first half of 2026.

“New points of attention emerged after Venezuela and the potential impacts on other nations, such as the renegotiation of the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement) that will take place in the middle of the year”, he warns.

“Given the uncertainty of the cyclical scenario and the low visibility of macroeconomic variables, investors can focus on companies with specific self-sustainability factors, led by strong management teams capable of generating solid profit growth even in uncertain times.”

Finance

As part of his early 2026 push to address affordability issues, Trump has proposed a 10% cap on credit card interest rates for one year, cites John Jordan, portfolio manager and Research analyst.

For him, although this change has serious implications for the sector’s profits, it is unlikely to be implemented in its current form. The reason is that implementing this measure would require legal authorization from Congress, and early reactions suggest little support.

“If implemented, the industry would have to restructure itself and significantly restrict consumer credit, which is why similar proposals have not been approved by legislative committees in the past. Reducing the limit to 11% or 12% – or even 20% – would mean that higher-risk customers would face a substantially different economic reality, including less (or no) access to credit and higher rates.”

Stocks outside the US

In the opinion of Julian McManus, Portfolio Manager at Janus, “the shift in geopolitical tectonic plates has accelerated recently”, first with the capture of Nicolás Maduro and, more recently, with Donald Trump’s strident rhetoric surrounding the acquisition of Greenland. He highlights that interpretations range from “this is just the Art of the Deal” to “this echoes the aggressive territorial expansion of the past”.

“The reality lies somewhere between these two extremes, but it is fair to say that the revitalization of the Monroe Doctrine is pushing the global economy increasingly towards a bipolar structure – with China controlling the opposite pole.

“We see opportunities in more obvious areas like defense, but also in less obvious sectors like banking — localization of supply chains is inherently inflationary and requires capital. At the same time, China’s approach to a command-and-control economy is more likely to produce national champions.”

Ultimately, one of the biggest disconnects for investors, in his opinion, is the discrepancy between the valuations of Western technology companies. “It’s understandable that investors would assign a geopolitical risk premium to Taiwan, but not applying the same logic to most of the ‘Magnificent Seven’ strikes us as a failure of market efficiency and a boon for global investors who can see the full set of opportunities.”