WASHINGTON — The number of Russian and Ukrainian soldiers killed, injured or reported missing in nearly four years of war is expected to reach 2 million by spring, according to a new study, a shocking toll as Russia’s offensive against the neighboring country continues.
The survey, published this Tuesday by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), in Washington, shows that almost 1.2 million Russian soldiers and around 600,000 Ukrainians were killed, injured or missing. This would bring total casualties on both sides to almost 1.8 million.
Since the start of the war, casualty figures have been difficult to pin down, as Russia is believed to routinely underreport its deaths and injuries, while Ukraine does not release official figures. The study was based on estimates from the US and UK governments, among other sources.
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The numbers paint a grim portrait of Russia’s modest advance in Ukraine: on some stretches of the front, Russian troops are advancing somewhere between 15 and 70 meters a day.
Since January 2024, Russia has seized 1.5% of Ukrainian territory, according to CSIS, and today occupies around 20% of the country.
With harsh winter temperatures slowing down troops on both sides, Russia has been slowly advancing through the Luhansk and Donetsk regions of eastern Ukraine as it tries to take full control of the area.
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Tactics also changed from side to side. Because of the constant presence of drones over the battlefield, Russia partly reduced the use of large movements of heavy armor and began to rely more on small groups of soldiers on motorcycles or on foot to try to infiltrate Ukrainian lines, in the hope of drawing less attention from the drones. Ukrainian drone operators monitor footprints and tire tracks in the snow in search of Russian troops.
The new casualty count was released after talks between Russian, Ukrainian and North American authorities — the first meeting involving the three countries — ended on Saturday with a rare positive tone.
The President of Ukraine, Volodimir Zelenski, said that negotiations have progressed and that the country is ready to hold new rounds. Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov said talks would resume next week.
The United States and Ukraine have reached an agreement on much of a peace plan that has already been revised several times. But it remains unclear whether Russia will accept any part of this plan.
Meanwhile, the death toll continues to rise. The center estimates that nearly 325,000 Russian soldiers have been killed since President Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion in February 2022.
“No great power has suffered anything close to these numbers of casualties or deaths since World War II,” the study says.
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In 2025 alone, there were around 415,000 Russians killed or injured, an average of almost 35,000 per month. Last week, President Donald Trump claimed that nearly 26,000 soldiers were dying in Ukraine each month.
The study estimates that between 100,000 and 140,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed since the start of the war.
The Russians outnumber the Ukrainians on the battlefield by a ratio of almost 3 to 1, and Russia has a much larger population from which to replenish its contingents. Ukraine loses a more significant share of a smaller army.
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Russia has maintained its ranks despite high casualties by carrying out the first large-scale conscription since World War II and recruiting prisoners and debtors. It has also offered bonuses to new recruits.
Up to 15,000 North Korean troops are estimated to have fought alongside the Russians, mainly in the western Russian region of Kursk, after Ukraine regained territory there. South Korean intelligence officials and analysts say at least hundreds of North Korean military personnel have been killed in the war.
The conflict has also put pressure on the Russian economy, according to Seth G. Jones, one of the study’s authors. Russia’s war economy would be “under increasing pressure,” the report states, “with industry in decline, growth slowing to 0.6% in 2025, and no globally competitive technology companies to drive long-term productivity.”
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The high casualty numbers, slow pace of territorial gains and economic losses are a clear indication of Russia’s weakening, says Jones.
“Russia’s poor battlefield performance in Ukraine and declining economic productivity indicate that the country is in serious decline as a great power,” he said in an email. “Although it still possesses nuclear weapons and a large military, Russia is no longer a great power in most military, economic, or science and technology categories.”
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