President Donald Trump campaigned in 2024 promising to “end inflation,” bring back manufacturing jobs and deliver an economic boom. A year after returning to the White House, he still hasn’t fulfilled those promises. Still, there was progress in some areas, and the economy proved surprisingly resilient.
Below are eight promises made by Trump as a candidate and the situation after his first year back in office.
Food prices
Campaign rally in Pittsburgh, November 4, 2024:
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“A vote for Trump means your food will be cheaper.”
It didn’t happen
Supermarket prices fell in some categories, such as eggs, but rose sharply in others, such as beef.
Overall, food inflation has slowed significantly since its 2022 peak, but has picked up steam again since Trump returned to office — December saw the biggest monthly increase in grocery prices since 2022.
He had promised to “reduce the prices of all goods.” Economists say that was never credible, but that inflation could have cooled more if he had not imposed tariffs on many imports.
Gasoline prices
Speech to the Economic Club of New York, September 5, 2024:
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“We’re going to put gas below $2 a gallon, and reduce the price of everything from electricity rates to food.”
Some progress
Gasoline prices have fallen under Trump, although not to the sub-$2 level promised during the campaign.
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The average price of a gallon of regular gasoline was $2.78 in early January, according to the Energy Information Administration. That’s down from just over $3 a year earlier.
Prices hit a record high of more than $5 a gallon following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
The factors behind the recent drop, including robust domestic oil production, were in place long before Trump’s return.
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Electricity prices
Campaign rally in Asheville, North Carolina, August 14, 2024:
“Under my leadership, the United States will commit to the ambitious goal of cutting energy and electricity prices in half, at least in half. We intend to cut prices in half within 12 months, maximum 18 months.”
It didn’t happen
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Unlike gasoline, different parts of the country pay very different prices for electricity. On average, residential electricity prices in December were 6.7% higher than a year earlier and rose much more in some regions.
Energy prices are being driven, in part, by increased demand from data centers linked to artificial intelligence, a sector that the government has embraced.
Higher electricity bills were a central theme in last year’s gubernatorial races and are expected to weigh heavily on this year’s midterm campaigns.
Automobile industry
Speech to the Economic Club of New York, September 5, 2024:
“We’re going to take our auto industry to the record levels it was 37 years ago, and we’re going to be able to do that very quickly through tariffs.”
It didn’t happen
U.S. auto production peaked in the mid-1980s and has been falling steadily since then, and the decline showed few signs of reversing during Trump’s first year back in office.
Globally, American automakers have lost ground to foreign competitors, especially Chinese companies specializing in affordable electric vehicles. Employment in the U.S. automotive sector fell by about 28,000 jobs last year.
Industrial jobs
Campaign speech in Savannah, Georgia, September 25, 2024:
“This new American industrialism will create millions and millions of jobs, massively raise the wages of American workers, and transform the United States into an industrial powerhouse like it was many years ago.”
It didn’t happen
Manufacturing employment was largely flat in Trump’s first few months back in the White House, but has now fallen for eight consecutive months. Factory worker wage growth also slowed last year.
Trump supporters say it will take time for his trade policies to translate into manufacturing jobs. Critics, however, note that investment in factory construction — which should respond more quickly to policy changes — has also fallen.
Stock market
NRA (National Rifle Association) event in Dallas, May 18, 2024:
“We are a nation whose continued stock market success depends on MAGA winning the next election.”
So far, so good
It’s been a rollercoaster for the stock market. Last spring, the S&P 500 closed down 18% from a recent peak, narrowly avoiding a bear market after Trump announced tariffs on nearly all of America’s trading partners.
But shares recovered when he backtracked days later. Despite other moments of nervousness, shares ended 2025 with a robust increase of 16%.
The driving force behind the gains was investor optimism about artificial intelligence — which in turn fueled concerns about an AI bubble that could burst.
Campaign rally in Juneau, Wisconsin, October 6, 2024:
“Let’s use the hundreds of billions — actually, it’s trillions, okay, but let’s use the hundreds of billions — of dollars from the tariffs to benefit American citizens and to pay down the debt, because we need to start paying down the debt.”
Some progress
The U.S. Treasury collected a record $264 billion in tariff revenue last year, more than three times the 2024 total. The Congressional Budget Office has estimated that tariffs would bring in $2.5 trillion in revenue by 2035, about half of what corporate income taxes collect.
Even if Trump’s tariffs withstand a Supreme Court challenge, the debt will continue to grow because taxes will not fully offset the loss of revenue from the tax cuts he signed into law last year.
Trade deficit
Speech to the Economic Club of Detroit, October 10, 2024:
“We have the biggest deficit we’ve ever had with China, and that’s not going to last long. It’s not going to last long.”
Some progress
Imports fell sharply after Trump’s trade policies took effect, significantly reducing the year-end deficit.
But imports could rise again as companies clear their inventories, and companies have not moved production back to the United States in any significant way.
Although the U.S.-China trade deficit peaked during Trump’s first term and has narrowed since then, some Chinese companies are diverting trade through other countries to avoid U.S. tariffs, making it difficult to measure the actual reduction.
c.2026 The New York Times Company
