Safe with twice the votes: it is fairer, stronger, more honest, more competent

Seguro brings together 51% and Ventura 27%, counting on abstention: 87% say they have a definitive choice. Seguro leads in practically all segments of the electorate. He cares more about people and is more friendly.

With just over a week to go before the second round of the presidential elections, the most recent /SIC poll (carried out before Tuesday’s debate and presented as the last before the day of going to the polls in the second round) gives clear advantage to António José Seguro about André Ventura.

Insurance accounts for 51% of voting intentions, while Ventura gets 27%. The number of undecided is us 8%below that recorded before the first round, and there is still 12% who abstaincom 2% expect to vote blank or null.

Numa projection without abstentionused to estimate the final behavior of voters who have not yet chosen, the survey points to 66% voting for Seguro, and 34% of the votes for Chega’s leader. Even on the defeated side, a result of around 34% would allow Ventura to argue that he has once again raised the level of his electorate, especially if participation is low and the protest vote is concentrated.

The majority of respondents say they have made a firm decision: 87% say they have already reached a “definitive” choice. And the margin for last-minute changes seems limited: only 8% of those who point to Ventura today admit they can change their voting direction until election day; in the Insurance field, this opening is even smaller, 3%.

The driving force behind Seguro’s leadership is the transfer of votes from the first round, says Expresso. The survey indicates that around 70% of voters who had chosen candidates such as Marques Mendes and Henrique Gouveia e Melo now intend to vote for Seguro.

But there is a exception in this poll: the electorate of Cotrim from Figueiredo. Among these voters, adherence to Insurance is less automatic. Around half express their intention to support it, but the weight of indecision and abstention is growing.

According to the data, Insurance leads among women and also among men; wins among the oldest, but also appears ahead among younger people; stands out among graduates, but maintains an advantage among voters with less education; and appears above Ventura both among those who live more comfortably and among those who experience more economic difficulties.

Among Chega supporters, support for Ventura is almost unanimous; the alignment of PS supporters with Seguro is high, but not absolute. The pattern is clear on the left and in the center, where Seguro collects majorities, but becomes competitive on the right: voters who position themselves in this camp are practically divided in half between the two candidates.

The poll also analyzes the qualities of the two candidates. Seguro has an absolute majority on all points, except when the question is “who is the strongest leader”, although he is considered stronger than Ventura as leader (47% against 33%).

According to the survey, In addition to being the strongest, Seguro is the friendliest, the most fair, he cares more about people, he is the most competent and the most honest of the two candidates.

A The big unknown is the mobilization. The survey suggests that those who did not vote in the first round are a more balanced group between candidates — which, in theory, could benefit Ventura. But precisely because they are less participatory voters, the doubt remains as to whether they will show up now.