The American economy offers an enviable image: solid growth, falling inflation and stock markets at highs. Donald Trump himself does not miss the opportunity to boast about it. And there is no lack of reason. But, beneath that optimistic surface, imbalances accumulate that could lead to a major correction, warns Gita Gopinath, one of the most influential economists in the world. The question is no longer if everything is going well today, but how long it can last.
The United States enters 2026 with several engines firing at the same time. Artificial intelligence has become the great catalyst growth, accompanied by massive investments in data centers and new digital infrastructure. Added to this is the wealth effect: the rise in stocks improvement the financial situation of many households and fuels consumption.
Plus, more stimulus is on the way. In the coming months new tax cuts will come into effect and interest rates are expected to begin to fall. All of this is offsetting, at least for now, the negative impact of import tariffs.
But this balance is fragile. The hidden tariff bill. Not everything is as positive as the headlines suggest. The tariffs imposed in recent years have had a clear cost:
- They have raised inflation between half a point and one percentage point
- Many companies absorbed this extra cost, reducing margins
- The labor market begins to lose strength
- Job creation is slowing
The result is an economy that will continue to grow, yes, but surrounded by increasingly visible risks.
The AI bubble and the fear of 35 billion
One of these risks has its own name: artificial intelligence. For months, markets have priced in huge future productivity gains. The problem, Gopinath points out, is that many investors They have confused that potential with justified stock valuations.
Now the real costs of AI are beginning to weigh, especially those linked to data centers and energy consumption. If expectations are abruptly corrected, The blow could be historic:
- Up to $20 trillion in assets could evaporate in the US.
- Another 15 billion would be at risk in the rest of the world
- Total: 35 billion dollars, more than in the dotcom crisis
The precedent of Deepseek, a Chinese company capable of developing AI at much lower costs, was a first warning sign. The market digested it quickly, but a second similar shock might not be so easy to absorb.
An accident worse than the dotcom
According to Gopinath, a strong correction today would be more damaging than the one in the early 2000s. The reason? Never before has so much global money been invested in US stocks. And the triggers are not limited to technology, but are also reflected by the rise in inflation, the increase in rates by the Federal Reserve, the serious difficulties for finance the huge public debt and rising long-term bond yields.
Central banks under political pressure
Added to all this is an institutional threat: the independence of central banks. The US president’s direct pressure on the Federal Reserve—including legal threats to its chairman and attacks on other members—sends a troubling signal.
Although the Supreme Court could stop some attempts, the simple fact that central bankers feel the political power against them is already a problem. In a world with record debt levels and bloated balance sheets, their room for maneuver is shrinking.
Europe managed to attract capital in 2025 thanks to lower valuations and better stock market returns. But that advantage has been running out. To justify current prices, European companies need to increase profits, and there arises a key obstacle: the continent is not leading the AI revolution.
To reverse it, Gopinath is clear: less bureaucracy, more deregulation and active innovation policies. Furthermore, it would be very positive to make decisions such as stopping strategic trade agreements that go in the opposite direction.
Beyond the economy, the diagnosis is geopolitical. The old West no longer acts as a bloc. The United States and Europe are diverging, and other actors are beginning to occupy empty spaces. The reaction of the markets to trade tensions or territorial threats shows that the world order is in transition. The big question is who will now defend a rules-based system.
The final risk: social fracture
To Gopinath, the deeper problem goes beyond Trump or the markets. lSocial polarization, migratory pressure, the decline of many cities and the impact of AI on the middle class are pushing societies towards extremes.
And therein lies the real danger: an economy that grows, but leaves too many people behind. Because when the center empties, any shock—financial or political— It can have much more serious consequences.
