March 2028. Russian military forces breach the Estonian border and occupy two small towns. What will be the West’s response to this new manifestation of Russian aggression?
The book “If she wins” (published by Metaichmio, trans. Emy Vaikousi) by the German political scientist Carlo Massala is a provocative, imaginative and exciting scenario of a future confrontation, based on real data, scientific findings and conclusions of paper exercises which became a bestseller in .
In the following excerpt the top leaders of NATO countries meet to assess the situation.
With a slight delay, the German chancellor enters the virtual space, where the presidents of the United States and France as well as the Secretary General of NATO are already waiting. For reasons that are not clear, the British Prime Minister has not yet connected. Nevertheless, the American president declares the session open; there is no time to waste.
“Gentlemen, as you know, Russian troops occupied the Estonian city of Narva this morning, as well as the island of Hiiumaa off the coast of Estonia. Our intelligence services report the advance of Russian forces in the direction of the borders with the Baltic countries. We are also seeing increased Russian naval activity in the ports of St. Petersburg and Kaliningrad. I have invited you here to consider together how we will deal with these developments.”
There are a few seconds of silence, and then the French president speaks. “The situation seems rather confused. Do we know what Russia’s goal is?”
“No. Our intelligence services do not have any relevant information” answers the American president. “At first glance, of course, the movements of Russian forces do not seem to herald a new wave of attacks. However, we cannot rule out the possibility of a Russian naval blockade operation off the coast of the Baltic states. Perhaps the General Secretary could enlighten us on the possible consequences of such a move?”.
“Of course”, the Secretary General immediately takes the floor, from his spacious office in Brussels, with the chairman of the NATO Military Commission next to him. “If Russia imposes a naval blockade on the Baltic states within the next 24 hours, then Alliance Tier-1 units will need at least ten days to reach the Baltic region”.
“On the condition Tier-1 troops (Level 1 Forces) NATO refers to the one hundred thousand men and women who can be deployed within ten days to the respective Baltic regions to form the first line of defense” whispers the national security adviser to the American president.
“And what makes you think I don’t know that?” he hisses through his teeth.
“These forces, or at least part of them,” continues the Secretary General, “could no longer be transported to the Baltic countries by sea, but exclusively through the Suwalki corridor where they would be constantly exposed to the risk of Russian attacks from Kaliningrad, but also from Belarus.”
“The Suwalki Corridor is a narrow strip of land between Kaliningrad and Belarus; through it – and only through it – can our forces move directly from Poland to Lithuania…” The national security adviser breaks off abruptly at the angry look of the American president.
“For us that would mean…” the Secretary General begins to say, when suddenly the British Prime Minister appears on the screen.
“Gentlemen, I sincerely apologize for my lateness,” he says, panting slightly. “There were, you know, multiple explosions at our naval base on the Clyde. Fortunately, there were no casualties, but some parts of the facilities were seriously damaged. And since, as you know, our nuclear submarines are based there, I considered it my national duty to immediately deal with these incidents.”
“Perhaps there is information about the perpetrators that you could share with us?” asks the federal chancellor.
“No, none” replies the prime minister. “However, our services suspect sabotage.”
“We are facing a hybrid war,” concludes the chancellor; “a war that has been waged against our countries and societies for a long time, but is now taking on increasingly dangerous proportions. In Germany, just a few minutes ago, one of the most important executives of our defense industry was killed in an attack. Neither do we yet know anything about the identity of the perpetrators, however, without having the intention of prejudging the relevant investigations, I consider it reasonable to assume that Russia or a state friendly to it is behind the attack.”
“Should we go back to the positions of the General Secretary?” the American president intervenes.
“With pleasure” he replies and picks up the thread from the beginning. “Well: if Russia were to proceed with a naval blockade, we would be forced to move our troops exclusively through the Shuvalki Corridor, thus exposing them to grave danger; otherwise, we would have to break the blockade, which would trigger an immediate conflict with Russia.”
“What could be Russia’s target?” asks the French president, addressing his interlocutors; “I guess he doesn’t want to start a war with NATO. Does he want to protect the Russian population in Estonia? Because – let’s say this too – Estonia has not been completely consistent on the question of their rights for years.”
“Whatever Russia’s goal is, the point is that it has hit NATO territory,” the chancellor replies. “Such a challenge cannot go unanswered. I think that…”.
“I have already asked the armed forces to work out response options,” interrupts the American president, “which, of course in consultation with you” – at this point the French president turns to the chancellor with a mocking smile – “we will make absolutely clear to the Russians. But the Estonians will request consultations based on Article 5 of NATO. This we will not be able to deny them; and by then we must have agreed on as common a position as possible, with which we will enter the talks. However, to be perfectly clear, I am not willing to risk World War III for a small town in Estonia. Unless we have concrete evidence that Obmanchikov plans to seize more territory, then neither I personally nor the United States will agree to trigger Article 5.”
“I suggest,” concludes the American president, closing the discussion, “that the Secretaries of State and Defense, as well as the National Security Advisors, stay in touch to continue coordination. But we have to move quickly.”
At this point, the end of the video conference is declared and the participants leave the virtual space. Then the chancellor turns to the national security adviser: “If NATO doesn’t react,” he says, “Russia will have won. I hope this is clear to everyone.”
The book was released on 1/27.
