Most of the market is counting on the continuation of the upward trend in gold, silver and the stock market, supported by the greater flow of resources, which could help keep the dollar at a lower level
February begins with more doubts regarding the maintenance of the favorable movement that has been marking the Brazilian market since last year, with successive records on the Stock Exchange and a fall, beyond what was predicted, for the dollar. Not only that. There was also a cooling in the strong momentum of gold and silver.
On Friday (30) there were sharp drops. Spot gold fell 10%, silver 16%. At the beginning of the week and month, these assets are rehearsing a resumption of the positive trend, even the Ibovespa in Brazil.
The possible change of sign came with the . Even with fears of possible pressure from Trump for more cuts, as he himself said last year that not cutting interest rates would be cowardice, Warsh’s track record somewhat minimizes the fear of decisions without a technical basis.
If the Federal Reserve preserves credibility, it can somewhat slow down the flow of investments to other markets, in the search for greater protection, in addition to profitability. This possibility caused a slowdown in other markets at the end of January. Earnings pocketed, it’s time to reevaluate the scenario.
In this aspect of the search for protection, geopolitical issues also weigh in: last week, concern about the escalation of threats between the United States and Iran; in this one, the lines about possible negotiations. Asset volatility has also been reflecting this change in tone. And it even picked up oil, which fell previously due to possible supply problems, but this Monday saw a sharp drop with more diplomatic talks between the two countries.
For now, most of the market is counting on the continued upward trend in gold, silver and the stock market, supported by the greater flow of resources, which could help keep the dollar at a lower level. After all, the United States, under Trump, continues to be a focus of many uncertainties. The country faces a tariffs still continue to be used as an instrument of pressure, there are doubts regarding the pace of activity in the American economy and possible repercussions on inflation and employment.
It is not possible to be sure of what will actually happen with monetary policy, after the change of command at the FED. All of this can still maintain a greater flow of resources to other markets, continuing the aforementioned trend. But there are doubts in another sense. Haven’t gold and silver already risen too high? To what extent will the profitability potential of Brazilian shares go, in a scenario of high interest rates, with prospects of less expansion of activity and all the instability that could come with the proximity of the elections? And even the stock markets of other countries may have stronger fluctuations.
Investors still fear a bubble in the artificial intelligence sector, with the conflicting results of the balance sheets of technology giants, increasingly under pressure to deliver higher profits. Even good balances can cause frustration and adjustments.
Ultimately, this is a time for caution in investment decisions, without this meaning immobility. You need to know how to take advantage of opportunities and try to anticipate possible unfavorable changes. Certainly, at the domestic level, only the prospect of high interest rates remains. Even though the Copom signaled the beginning of the Selic cut cycle in March, the cuts should be gradual, maintaining the contractionary monetary policy and the good real gains from interest-linked investments. Because inflation projections for this year are also falling, they have already fallen below 4%.
*This text does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Jovem Pan.
