The president (PT) is in a technical tie with (Republicans), (PL) and Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) in simulations of the second round of the 2026 elections, according to the Meio Ideia survey released this Wednesday (4).
The survey’s margin of error is 2.5 percentage points, plus or minus. In the second round with Flávio, Lula reaches 45.8%, against 41.1% for the senator. In the dispute with Tarcísio, Lula has 44.7%, and the governor, 42.2%. Michelle scores 40.7% compared to 45% for the pre-candidate for re-election. The difference in the three cases is within the limit of the margin of error.
A version of the same survey carried out in January showed that, in the second round, he was only tied with Tarcísio.
Lula scores 45% against 38% for Ratinho Jr. (PSD-PR), 45% against 34% for Ronaldo Caiado (PSD-GO), 45% against 34.5% for Romeu Zema (Novo-MG), and 45.4% against 21% for Eduardo Leite (PSD).
Renan Santos (Mission) has 26% compared to Lula’s 45.5%, and Aldo Rebelo (DC), 20% compared to the president’s 45%.
In the first-round scenarios stimulated in the research, Lula appears numerically ahead in all seven simulations in which he is tested. In a scenario where the main opponents are Flávio, Zema and Eduardo Leite, the PT member has 38.7% of voting intentions, compared to 35.3% for the PL senator — numbers that also constitute a technical tie.
In another simulation, with Flávio and Ratinho Jr. as opponents, the current president has an advantage: he scores 39.5%, compared to 32% for the senator and 8.8% for the governor of Paraná.
When the main opponent in the first round is Tarcísio, Lula has 40% of voting intentions, compared to 35% for his rival, and 6.5% for Romeu Zema.
In one of the simulations in which Michelle is the Bolsonaro candidate, the PT member has 38.5%, and the former first lady, 33%. Zema has 6.5%.
The survey also tested Fernando Haddad as a PT candidate. In a first round simulation, he scores 36.2% against Flávio’s 34.5%. In another scenario, it has 36.4% against Tarcísio’s 36%.
In the second round, Haddad has 41.8% against Flávio’s 40% and 42% against Ratinho Jr’s 39%. With Tarcísio de Freitas, the Finance Minister has 40.5% compared to his rival’s 44.5%.
In the spontaneous question — in which interviewees respond “In 2026 we will have elections for president of Brazil, if the elections were held today who would you vote for?” — Lula appears with 33% of voting intentions, compared to 32% in the last survey.
Flávio Bolsonaro went from 6.6% to 16.3% in the same period, while his father, imprisoned and ineligible, went from 9.5% to 8% of mentions, a value that varied within the margin of error. The senator was appointed by the former president as his successor in the elections to the detriment of Tarcísio.
The remaining names are below 5%.
Lula is the most remembered candidate when participants were asked who they would not vote for at all. He received 44% of mentions, followed by Flávio, with 34%, Haddad, with 30%, and Michelle, with 29.4%.
Regarding the vote for president, 62% say they are decided, against 38% who say the opposite. 51% of Brazilians think that Lula does not deserve to remain in power, 47% think the opposite and 2% do not know.
The survey interviewed 1,500 people from Friday (30) to Monday (2), through telephone interviews. The 95% confidence interval. The survey is registered with the Superior Electoral Court under protocol BR-08425/2026. The survey was paid for by Meio.
