Donald Trump once again places the war in Ukraine at the center of its energy diplomacy. According to the US president, India is willing to reduce – or even abandon – its purchases of Russian oil, a turn that, in Trump’s own words, could “help end the war in Ukraine.” However, while Washington presents the announcement as a political triumph, Moscow claims to be unaware of any changes by New Delhi.
The Kremlin has been clear. His spokesman, Dmitri Peskov, stated that Russia has not received “no official statement” from India indicating that it will stop importing Russian crude oil. On the contrary, he stressed that Moscow values its relationship with the Asian country and aspires to continue deepening a strategic partnership that has been strengthened since the start of the war.
Trump’s version
The American reading is very different. Trump assured that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi told him during a telephone conversation of his intention to substitute Russian oil for supplies from the United States and, “possibly”, from Venezuela. The message was spread by the president himself on his social network Truth Social, where he directly linked this decision to a possible outcome of the conflict in Ukraine.
For Trump, the flow of energy revenues to Moscow is one of the keys that allows Vladimir Putin to sustain the war effort. Reduce it, even indirectly, It would be part of their strategy to force a negotiation.
Oil in exchange for tariffs
The announcement does not come alone. According to the White House, the alleged Indian commitment is part of a broader trade agreement that includes an important concession from Washington: the withdrawal of punitive tariffs imposed on India this summer.
Specifically, the United States would commit to:
- Eliminate an additional 25% tariff imposed in August to pressure Russian oil purchases
- Reduce overall tariffs on Indian imports from 25% to 18%
- Establish a new bilateral trade framework with immediate effect
Trump presented the agreement as a personal gesture towards Modi, whom he said he respected “out of friendship”. According to his version, India also committed to acquiring more than $500 billion in American products, including energy, technology, agriculture and other strategic goods.
Ambiguity from New Delhi
Despite Trump’s enthusiasm, the message coming from India is much more nuanced. Modi publicly celebrated the reduction of tariffs and highlighted the importance of the relationship with the United States, but avoided explicitly confirming that his country is going to break with Russian oil.
It’s not the first time it happens. Already in October, Trump claimed that Modi had promised to stop buying crude oil from Moscow. So, The Indian Government was willing to increase energy imports Americans, but left open the key question: whether that would mean cutting off Russian supplies.
This time, the pattern repeats itself. India reaffirms its closeness to Washington, but without closing the door to Moscow.
A delicate geopolitical balance
The Indian position responds to clear logic. Since the beginning of the war, New Delhi has significantly increased its purchases of Russian oilbenefiting from significant discounts. At the same time, it has avoided fully aligning itself with the West on sanctions against Russia, defending a “strategically autonomous” foreign policy.
For India, the dilemma is threefold:
- Maintain cheap energy to sustain economic growth
- Preserve its historical relationship with Russia, key in defense matters
- Avoid a head-on collision with the United States, its main strategic partner vis-à-vis China
From Russia, the message is one of calm. The Kremlin insists that there are no concrete signs that India is going to modify its energy policy and recalls that bilateral cooperation goes far beyond oil. For Moscow, Trump’s statements are more part of its political narrative than real change on the ground.
Can this affect the war?
The big question is whether an eventual reduction in Indian purchases would have a tangible impact on the war in Ukraine. Although symbolically relevant, Russia has demonstrated a remarkable ability to redirect its energy exports towards Asia and other markets.
For now, the alleged Indian turn exists mostly in Trump’s speech. Between announcements, ambiguities and denials, oil diplomacy once again shows to what extent The war in Ukraine is also being fought in the marketscustoms and tariffs… not only on the battlefield.
