Estimates from the Economic Policy Secretariat predict a slowdown in agriculture and a greater contribution from industry and services next year
The Ministry of Finance projects that Brazil’s GDP (Gross Domestic Product) will grow 2.3% in 2026, according to the document “What to expect in 2026”, released this Friday (Feb 6, 2026) by the SPE (Secretary of Economic Policy). Read (PDF – 923 kB).
The estimate indicates maintenance of the growth rate observed in 2025, but with a change in the composition of economic activity. The Treasury expects a sharp slowdown in agriculture, after the previous year’s record harvest, offset by greater expansion in industry and services.
According to the SPE, the industry is expected to grow 2.3% in 2026, while the services sector is expected to grow 2.4%. Agriculture, in turn, is projected to rise by just 0.5%, after double-digit expansion in 2025.
From a demand perspective, the Treasury states that domestic absorption tends to accelerate, reflecting a gradual improvement in consumption and investments, although partially offset by a smaller contribution from the external sector, in a more restrictive international environment for trade.
The document also points out that the continuity of the disinflation process should allow the beginning of a cycle of monetary easing throughout 2026, which tends to favor more credit-sensitive sectors.
The SPE highlights, however, that the scenario for 2026 involves risks, such as geopolitical tensions, greater trade protectionism and a possible more intense slowdown in the Chinese economy, factors that could affect global growth and commodity prices.
