The resumption of work in Congress placed the review of working hours at the center of the government’s political agenda in 2026. Defended by President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) as one of the priorities of the year, the proposal to extinguish the 6×1 scale without salary reduction began to be read by the market not only as a labor debate, but as a fiscal and economic risk with the potential for a direct impact on employment, productivity and growth.
In the Risk Map, the new policy program for Infomoneywhich aired this Friday (6), analysts pointed out that the discussion gained traction precisely at the moment when the electoral calendar starts to influence the behavior of Congress.
“This is possibly President Lula’s last election. The PT should use the campaign to try to reconnect with issues that are very sensitive to its electoral base, especially the workers”, said XP political analyst, Bárbara Baião.
Opportunity with security!
From a technical point of view, the debate is marked by opposing readings. A note from the Public Leadership Center estimates that the end of the 6×1 scale could result in the loss of more than 600 thousand formal jobs, with a significant drop in production, especially in sectors such as commerce, agriculture and construction. Studies cited by supporters of the proposal point to the opposite effect, with the creation of vacancies and an increase in the wage bill.
According to a survey carried out by Dieese, the reduction from 44 hours to 40 hours a week would generate a potential of 3.6 million new formal jobs and the reduction to 36 hours would generate 8.8 million jobs with a possible additional mass of 9.2 billion in salaries.
For XP policy analyst, Bianca Lima, the central point is not just the merit of the proposal, but the likelihood of legislative progress in a political environment favorable to popular agendas. “If this topic is discussed in the plenary sessions, the chance of progress is high, because it is very difficult to go against such a popular agenda on the eve of the election”, assessed Bianca.
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Halfway
Despite the more ambitious speech, the assessment among analysts is that, if it moves forward, the proposal tends to be moderate. “I don’t see room for a sudden shift, like a 4×3 journey. What could move forward is a halfway point, something like 5×2, with a very sensitive discussion about salary maintenance, costs for companies and transition time”, said Bianca.
This design is especially worrying for labor-intensive sectors, such as bars, restaurants and commerce, which are already working with Congress to try to mitigate impacts. The reading is that any reduction in working hours with preserved salary implies an increase in costs in a scenario of high interest rates and pressured margins.
Election year accelerates risk
The timing of the discussion reinforces the perception of risk. According to Bárbara Baião, the government itself already admits that the proposal could take shape in the first half of the year, precisely when deputies and senators are more attentive to the mood of the electorate.
“It is a very popular agenda and Planalto’s bet is that there will be support, especially if the relationship with the presidency of the Chamber continues to be more oiled”, he stated.
For the market, the risk is less in the final text and more in the political signal. The combination of electoral pressure, the labor agenda and uncertainty about economic compensation tends to increase caution with assets linked to consumption and services, in addition to fueling doubts about the government’s commitment to fiscal predictability on the eve of the presidential contest.
The Risk Map, the new policy program for Infomoneyairs every Friday, starting at 5am, on YouTube and your favorite podcast player.
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