The United States is considering new military attacks against the Islamic Republic of Iran due to the violent repression of anti-government protests.
The complexity of Iran’s system of government, the ideological nature of its support base, and the power of the Revolutionary Guard make it difficult to predict its resilience or vulnerability in the face of an external attack, or what might happen next.
Why does Iran have a supreme leader?
Iran’s political system is based on the theory of vilayat-e faqih (“rule of the jurist”), which holds that until the return of the 12th Shiite Muslim Imam, who disappeared in the 9th century, power on Earth must be exercised by a supreme cleric.
The first Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, was the charismatic father figure of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, who developed the model of a cleric above an elected government.
His successor, the has consolidated this role since assuming leadership in 1989. This has ensured that he retains the final say in all major policy decisions and has built one system of government parallel to that of the elected government, composed of allies.
Khamenei’s influence has often been exerted through the National Security Council, headed by longtime adviser Ali Larijani.
Other advisers to Khamenei, including former Defense Minister Ali Shamkhani and former Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Velayati, also played prominent roles.
Khamenei, 86 years old, he has not named a successor and it is unclear who would replace him if he were killed or deposed.
Your son, Mojtaba Khameneiis sometimes seen as a possible candidate. His predecessor’s grandson, Hassan Khomeini, was also considered, as were some senior and high-ranking clerics.
Is Iran a theocracy?
Iran’s top clergy control powerful bodies that extend influence throughout the political system.
The Assembly of Experts, made up of high-ranking ayatollahs elected every eight years, is the body that appoints the supreme leader. The Constitution also gives him the power to question and even remove a leader, but this has never happened.
The Guardian Council, made up of half members appointed by the leader and half by the head of the judiciary, can veto laws passed by parliament and disqualify candidates from elections, a mandate that has been used to block potential critics of Khamenei.
Another clerical body, the Council of Discernment, appointed by Khamenei, resolves disputes between the elected parliament and the Council of Guardians.
Iran follows Shiite interpretations of Islamic sharia law and judges are also clerics, reporting to a head of the judiciary appointed by Khamenei. The current head, Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei, was sanctioned by Western countries due to the violent crackdown on protesters in 2009, when he was intelligence minister.
Other influential clerics include the head of the Discernment Council and former head of the judiciary, Sadiq Larijani, brother of Ali Larijani; the member of the Assembly of Experts and the Discernment Council, Mohsen Araki; and Tehran’s Friday prayer leader, Ahmad Khatami.
However, not all clerics — even high-ranking ones — are necessarily supporters of Iran’s theocratic system or current rulers. Some were dissidents, others, like former president Mohammed Khatami, tried, unsuccessfully, to reform and soften the current system.
What is the power of the Revolutionary Guard?
Unlike the ordinary armed forces, which are subordinate to the Ministry of Defense in an elected government, the Body of reports directly to the Supreme Leader.
Formed shortly after the revolution, the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) greatly expanded its role in defending the Islamic system during the 1980 to 1988 war with Iraq, and is currently the strongest and best-equipped branch of Iran’s military.
Over the decades, the Revolutionary Guard extended influence across the worlds of politics and business, gaining power both at home and abroad.
The Quds Force, an elite unit of the Revolutionary Guard, led the regional strategy Iran’s support for affiliated Shiite groups throughout the Middle East, particularly in Lebanon and Iraq.
This strategy was hit hard by the US assassination of Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani in an airstrike in Iraq in 2020, and Israel’s offensive against Lebanese Hezbollah in the 2024 war.
The Basij militia, a part-time paramilitary force under the control of the Revolutionary Guard, is often used to suppress protests inside Iran.
Since the early 2000s, the Revolutionary Guard’s economic power has grown as its construction company, Khatam al-Anbiya, it won projects worth billions of dollars in Iran’s oil and gas sector.
The targeted nature of Israeli attacks on senior Revolutionary Guard commanders last year and on Hezbollah leaders in 2024 has raised questions about possible Western intelligence infiltration into the upper echelons of the military body.
However, Revolutionary Guard commander Mohammad Pakpour, his deputy Ahmad Vahidi, Revolutionary Guard Navy chief Alireza Tangsiri and current Quds Force commander Esmail Ghaani remain powerful figures.
Is Iran also a democracy?
Iranians elect a president and parliament for four-year terms. The president appoints a government that administers day-to-day policies within the parameters allowed by the Supreme Leader.
During the early years of the Islamic Republic, voting attracted mass participation. However, the Guardian Council’s restrictions on candidates and the outcome contested The 2009 elections undermined the confidence of many voters, while the role of the Supreme Leader reduced the autonomy of elected bodies.
The president, considered moderate, was elected in 2024 after a first round with around 40% participation and a second round attended by approximately half of the electorate. He defeated Saeed Jalili, a Khamenei loyalist and anti-Western hardliner who remains influential.
The speaker of parliament since 2020 is former Revolutionary Guards commander Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf.
