The mayor of , (), surpasses the governor () and leads in voting intention scenarios for the first and second rounds of the election for the Government of Pernambuco, shows new research.
According to the survey, Campos has 47% of the votes against 35% for Lyra in the first electoral round. Eduardo Moura () has 5%, and Ivan Moraes (), 1%. Blanks and nulls total 10%, and 2% did not respond or did not know how to respond.
In a possible second round between the two main competitors this year, the current mayor will also be ahead of the current governor. He wins with 53% of voting intentions compared to her 40%.
The survey interviewed 1,022 people from Monday (2) to Wednesday (4). The margin of error is three percentage points, and the confidence level is 95%. The survey was contracted by CBN Recife and is registered with the (Superior Electoral Court) with numbers PE-09595/2026 and BR-06559/2026.
In comparison with previous research, the difference decreased. The distance, 12 percentage points in the first round, was 22 points in an October survey. In that survey, Campos had 53% of voting intentions, while Lyra registered 31%.
The same occurs in relation to a possible second round between the two. According to this month’s survey, the difference between the mayor and the current governor is 13 points. Before, there were 23 percentage points that separated them. In October he had 58%; she, 35%.
Campos and Lyra have the lowest rejections: 23% and 31%, respectively. Moraes has 43%, and Moura 35%. 5% were unable to answer. 3% said they would reject everyone or would not vote for anyone, and 2% said they would vote for anyone or would not reject anyone.
The mayor was re-elected in 2024 with a large advantage and needs to resign by April to run. He must have President Lula’s PT on the platform, which has strong support in the state. Raquel Lyra faced setbacks in the Legislature throughout her term, tried to get closer to the Lula administration and left the PSDB, for which she had been elected, for the PSD.
The Datafolha survey also shows that 38% consider Lyra’s management to be excellent or good. Before it was 36%. Already 23% rate it as bad or terrible — in October, it was 24%. Another 36% classify the government as regular (it was 37% in the previous survey).
In the dispute for , the one who appears ahead in the four scenarios researched in the state is Marília Arraes (Solidarity), with rates ranging from 36% to 41%. () is second in the simulations, varying from 24% to 26%, but there is a technical tie with competitors such as Miguel Coelho (União Brasil) and Eduardo da Fonte (PP), depending on the scenario tested.
For the first Senate vacancy, 18% intend to vote blank or null, and 6% are undecided. For the second, 25% will vote blank or null and 8% are undecided.
The research also shows that the president (PT) would win in Pernambuco for the Presidency in scenarios tested with the governor of , (), and senator and son of the former president, ().
In the hypothesis with Tarcísio, Lula has 55% of voting intentions in the state compared to his 14% in the first round. In the event of a direct confrontation between the two in the next stage, the PT member surpasses the governor with 58% against 29%.
In the scenario with Flávio, the current president registers 54% of voting intentions in Pernambuco, while the former president’s firstborn (PL) has 25%. In a second round race, Lula has 59%, and Flávio, 31%.
