This Sunday’s election in Japan is expected to consolidate the power of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. According to an exit poll released by the broadcaster NHKthe Liberal Democratic Party (PLD) is on track to win a robust majority in the Lower House, the most powerful House of the Japanese Parliament.
Projections indicate that the PLD could win around 300 of the 465 seats in dispute, well above the minimum necessary to control the legislative agenda. If the party confirms the alliance with the Innovation Party of Japan, the coalition could reach approximately two-thirds of the total seats, a level that facilitates the approval of sensitive projects and reduces dependence on specific negotiations.
The result represents Takaichi’s first major electoral test since she took office and decided to dissolve the Lower House at the beginning of the year. At the time, the prime minister stated that she would put her own mandate at stake if she lost her majority, in an attempt to obtain direct approval from the electorate for her economic program.
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Fiscal policy
With the likely victory, the government gains momentum to move forward with a more expansionist fiscal agenda. Among the campaign’s central promises is the suspension, for two months, of the 8% tax on food, a measure seen as immediate relief to the cost of living. Economists, however, warn of the impact on the public accounts of a country that already lives with one of the largest debts in the world and of possible additional pressure on the yen.
In the field of defense, the projected majority also paves the way to increase military spending to 2% of GDP, doubling the level historically adopted by Japan. The proposal aligns with the vision defended by Takaichi and inherited from his political godfather, former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, assassinated in 2022, who defended a more flexible interpretation of the country’s pacifist Constitution.
International relations
Foreign policy is another sensitive point. The prime minister has adopted a tougher stance towards China, especially in the context of tensions involving Taiwan. Recent statements about possible Japanese support for the United States in a scenario of a Chinese blockade of the island generated reactions in Beijing and increased international attention on the issue.
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The strengthening of the government also occurs amid external pressure. US President Donald Trump expressed public support for Takaichi in the final stretch of the campaign, advocating that Asian allies increase investments in defense.
Despite the expected majority in the Lower House, the government will still face an institutional counterweight: the Upper House, which cannot be dissolved by the prime minister and where the opposition maintains greater blocking capacity.
