Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s party is expected to secure a large majority in Japan’s Lower House in Sunday’s elections (8), according to a forecast from public broadcaster NHK, based on exit polls.
According to NHK, Takaichi’s LDP (Liberal Democratic Party) is expected to win between 274 and 328 of the 465 seats in the chamber, well above the 233 needed to obtain a majority.
Together with its coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party, known as Ishin, it could control up to 366 of the seats.
a rare practice in winter, to capitalize on his high personal approval ratings since assuming leadership of the ruling LDP party late last year.
Takaichi bet on winter election
Voters were attracted to his image as an outspoken, hard-working person, but his nationalistic tendencies and emphasis, while his promises of tax cuts shook financial markets.
to vote, with record snowfall in some parts of the country causing congestion and forcing some polling places to close early.
This is only the third post-war election to be held in February, with elections typically being called during the milder months.
Outside a polling station in the city of Uonuma in mountainous Niigata Prefecture, 54-year-old teacher Kazushige Cho braved subzero temperatures and deep snow to vote for the Takaichi Liberal Democratic Party.
“It feels like it’s creating a sense of direction — like the whole country is coming together and moving forward. That really touches me,” he said.
But the election promise to suspend the 8% tax on food sales to help families cope with rising prices has spooked investors, worried about how the country with the most debt among advanced economies will finance the plan.
“If Takaichi wins handily, he will have more political space to meet important commitments, including consumption tax cuts,” said Seiji Inada, managing director of FGS Global, a consultancy. “Markets may react in the following days and the yen may come under renewed pressure.”
Niigata resident Mineko Mori, 74, walking in the snow with her dog, said she was worried that Takaichi’s tax cuts could burden future generations with an even greater burden.
But younger voters are among those most supportive of Takaichi, with a recent poll finding that more than 90% of under-30s prefer her.
The prime minister has sparked an unexpected craze among young people called “sanakatsu”, which roughly translates as “Sanae-mania”, with the products she uses, such as her handbag and the pink pen with which she scribbles notes in parliament, in high demand.
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China will also be closely monitoring the results.
Weeks after taking office, Takaichi sparked the biggest row with China in more than a decade by publicly outlining how Tokyo might respond to a Chinese attack on Taiwan.
A strong mandate could accelerate its plans to bolster Japan’s defense, which Beijing sees as an attempt to revive its militaristic past.
“I voted for a party that clearly has the will to protect the country,” said Masanobu Igarashi, a retired soldier, after voting for the LDP in Uonuma.
