The Bhumjaithai party, which leads the current Government of Thailand, has taken the lead in the general elections held this Sunday in the Southeast Asian country, with the scrutiny almost complete. The fragmentation of support, however, points to a Parliament without clear majorities and keeps alive the possibility that the country will prolong the cycle of political instability of recent years. Around 60% of voters also voted in favor of changing the Constitution, inherited from the military junta that ruled between 2014 and 2019.
The conservative Bhumjaithai (Thai Pride) is expected to obtain at least 195 seats of the 500 in the running, according to the provisional results of the Electoral Commission, collected by the Efe Agency. The progressive People’s Party (PP), favorite in the campaign and promoter of the constitutional plebiscite, follows with about 114 seats, while the populist Phue Thai (For the Thais, PT) is expected to get 78. A simple majority of 251 legislators is needed to form a government.
Around 53 million Thais were called to the polls this Sunday, which has become an examination of the political system that emerged after more than a decade of fragile governments and institutional ups and downs. The vote (the polls closed at 5:00 p.m. local time, six hours less in mainland Spain), has come after an intense period of turbulence: since the general elections in May 2023, Thailand has seen how the winning party ended up being blocked from governing and dissolved by court order; The Constitutional Court has played a key role in the fall of prime ministers, and executive power has changed hands through complex parliamentary maneuvers.
The electoral event, which will serve to elect the 500 members of the House of Representatives, was called in advance by the prime minister, leader of Bhumjaithai, with the aim of avoiding a foreseeable motion of censure against his Executive, which governs in a minority. But the political background goes far beyond a parliamentary maneuver. Since the last elections, less than three years ago, Thai politics has been trapped in a permanent crisis: three leaders have governed and there has been recurrent intervention by the courts, which has made it difficult for the majority that emerged from the polls to translate into stable governments.
Behind this instability stands out a long-standing struggle between a reformist, urban and increasingly younger movement, and a establishment formed by the Army, the judiciary and the monarchy, which retains broad powers even in periods of civil government. Many voters question whether their vote will really serve to alter that balance or whether institutional vetoes will once again prevail.
The main hope of the reformist bloc is the PP, direct heir to Move Forward, which won the 2023 elections (hand-picked by the military government and over which the elites exercise enormous influence). Led by Natthaphong Ruegpanyawut, 38, the PP proposes an agenda of structural change that includes reform of the Constitution, limiting the power of non-elected bodies and a redefinition of the relationship between civil and military power. Polls place him in the lead: during the campaign, he has lowered his tone in several key aspects for his electoral base in order to try to avoid ending up banned like his predecessor Avanzar, which was due to his commitment to reforming the law that protects the monarchy from all criticism.
At the other end of the political spectrum are conservative forces, fragmented but with a notable capacity for influence. Within these, Anutin and Bhumjaithai represent the continuity of the current system. The prime minister (who came to power with the support of the PP), a pragmatic politician accustomed to moving in the center of the board, has reinforced his nationalist discourse after the , the most serious in decades and which claimed . In a context of concern for security and regional uncertainty, his patriotic message has resonated with a part of the electorate.
A traditional actor moves between both poles, but who, for the first time in two decades, does not start as a favorite. The Pheu Thai party, founded by the controversial tycoon and former strongman of the country Thaksin Shinawatra, arrives at these elections weakened and without the momentum that allowed it to capitalize for years on the vote against the establishment. The formation linked to the Shinawatra clan is dragging on the wear and tear of , which was removed from office by the Constitutional Court in the midst of the crisis with Cambodia. In addition, his father, billionaire Thaksin, is here, a circumstance that his opponents have exploited in the campaign as a reminder of the excesses of the past and as a warning against any attempt at a comeback. However, Pheu Thai, now led by Thaksin’s nephew, remains the third political force and could become a key partner in a future coalition government.
The result points to a fragmented Parliament and complex negotiations. But the difference with the elections three years ago is that the Senate no longer has the capacity to veto the prime minister, since the mechanism that granted it that power expired in 2024. The head of the Executive will be elected exclusively by the Lower House, which opens a window of opportunity for the popular will to have greater weight. However, the Senate maintains the ability to block laws and constitutional reforms, which limits the room for maneuver of any new government.
Precisely, the Constitution is one of the great issues at stake this Sunday. Along with the legislative elections, voters participate in a referendum that can activate the process to draft a new fundamental law and dismantle the legal framework inherited from the 2014 coup d’état. The current Constitution, approved during the period of military government (2014-2019), grants broad powers to “independent” bodies such as the Constitutional Court or the Electoral Commission, decisive in the dissolution of parties and the dismissal of prime ministers.
The next Executive will inherit an economically weakened Thailand, with one of the lowest growth rates in Southeast Asia (it was 2.2% in 2025, while the region grows at an average of 4%), enormous social inequality and with household debt skyrocketing to almost 88% of GDP, one of the highest proportions in Asia, which has hampered consumption. In addition, tourism, a traditional pillar of its economy, has not yet fully recovered from the blow of the pandemic and the taxes imposed by the Administration of the American Donald Trump.
