Gold has been considered a store of value for thousands of years. In 2026, however, its price has behaved more like a “meme stock” than a safe haven.
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But gold prices have shown extraordinary volatility before registering. Gold is up approximately 15% this year.
Gold has seen significant increases before: the best year on record was 1979, with an increase of 144%, amid inflation and increased geopolitical tensions in the United States. And prices rose 24% in 2020 as the pandemic drastically altered the status quo of the global economy.
This time, gold is benefiting from rising geopolitical tensions. And as investors bought more, the gains picked up momentum, resulting in prices soaring.
Investors can buy and sell ETFs (exchange-traded funds) that replicate the price of gold and silver in the same way they buy and sell stocks.
The SPDR Gold ETF — a popular fund that tracks the performance of physical gold — saw the largest monthly inflows in history in August, according to data from FactSet.
In recent years, American markets have seen investors flock to a euphoria-driven rally, trying to take advantage of sudden stock appreciation.
Analysts say a similar pattern is repeating itself in the metals market: gold and silver have behaved like this.
A golden opportunity
Gold appreciated by 27% in 2024 and 67% in 2025. The yellow metal reached US$4,000 per troy ounce for the first time in October, before surpassing US$5,000 in January.
“I think there was a wide variety of investors, including hedgers, speculators, hedge funds and retail traders, all acting aggressively and driving prices higher than we expected, past the point of sustainability,” said Joe Cavatoni, senior market strategist and head of US public policy at the World Gold Council.
Despite registering the biggest single-day drop on January 30, gold is still up this year. But recent volatility has led some analysts to question whether gold still retains the same “luster” as an investment.
Meanwhile, bitcoin is down 50% since hitting an all-time high above $126,000 in October. Analysts say investors who took advantage of bitcoin’s rise may have shifted focus to precious metals, which contributed to fueling volatility.
“This is distorting gold’s historical role as a safe haven. It is now trading as a momentum-driven market, at the extreme ends of the risk asset spectrum,” highlighted David Scutt, market analyst at Forex.com, in an email.
The fundamental outlook for gold remains positive, according to economists. JPMorgan Chase predicts gold prices will reach $6,300 per troy ounce by the end of 2026.
While investors try to profit from the rally, geopolitical uncertainty persists, which impacts gold prices.
Historical volatility
Silver also displayed extraordinary volatility. Silver prices more than tripled in the last year before plunging 31% on January 30 to record their worst day since 1980. Still, silver is up approximately 138% in the last year.
Gold rose 6.07% on Tuesday (3) and recorded its best day since 2009, just two days after having the worst day in history.
Cboe’s Gold Volatility Index has soared this year to the highest level since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, reflecting the intensity of the metal’s recent volatility.
“It’s hard to justify calling something a hedge when it has double-digit swings,” Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, told CNN.
“When you see this kind of decline it is painful,” he added, “but in some ways it is the natural result of hyper-aggressive speculation,” he concluded.
