In addition to the governor of Paraná, the survey tested three scenarios stimulated with Eduardo Leite (RS) and Ronaldo Caiado (GO)
The RealTime Big Data survey released this Monday (9) points to President Lula (PT) in front of senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) in the first round. In the first stimulated scenario of the research, the PT member appears with 39% of voting intentions, against 30% for Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ).
The governor of Paraná, Ratinho Jr. (PSD), also appears in the survey in third place with 10%, followed by Romeu Zema (Novo) with 3%, Aldo Rebelo (DC) with 2% and Renan Santos (Missão) with 1%.
In a second scenario, with the governor of Rio Grande do Sul, Eduardo Leite (PSD), Lula’s advantage fluctuates slightly upwards. The current president scores 40%, while Flávio Bolsonaro rises to 32%. Milk appears distant, with 5%, technically tied with Zema (4%) and Aldo Rebelo (3%).
The third scenario also evaluated the name of the governor of Goiás, Ronaldo Caiado (PSD). The panorama remains similar: Lula leads with 40% and Flávio Bolsonaro has 32%. Caiado reaches 6% of voting intentionsfollowed by Zema with 4%, Rebelo with 2% and Santos with 1%.
Blanks and nulls total 7%, while 8% did not know or did not respond in the three scenarios.
Rejection
The survey also measured the “votability” of the main names. President Lula has the largest consolidated vote (“I’m decided”) with 33%, but faces a rejection (“I wouldn’t vote”) of 48%.
Flávio Bolsonaro presents a rejection rate technically tied with that of the current president, reaching 49%. The PL senator has 18% of the vote decided and 20% who say “I can vote” for him.
Among the governors tested, lack of knowledge stands out. The rate in this regard for Eduardo Leite is 37% and 22% for Ratinho Jr. As for Ronaldo Caiado, 25% do not know him “enough to give an opinion”.
The research was carried out between February 6th and 7th, 2026, with 2,000 face-to-face interviews across the country. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.0 percentage points, with a 95% confidence level. The survey is registered under number BR-06428/2026.
