Flávio beats Lula in the 2nd round in ES, says survey

Pre-candidates have a technical tie in the 1st round, says survey by Real Time Big Data

A Real Time Big Data survey released this Tuesday (June 9, 2026) shows that the senator (PL-RJ) has 48% of voting intentions in Espírito Santo, against 43% for the president (PT), in a possible 2nd round dispute.

In relation to the 1st round of elections, Flávio is numerically ahead, but in a technical tie. Real Time Big Data asked: “In October we will have elections. If the election for president of the Republic were today. Who would you vote for if the names were those?”. Here is how the interviewees responded:

Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) leads the race for president in Espírito Santo

The survey shows that Lula is the most rejected: 52% of those interviewed said they would not vote for him under any circumstances. Those who reject Flávio total 48%.

Flávio beats Lula in the 2nd round in ES, says survey

The survey interviewed 1,600 people from June 6 to 8, 2026. The margin of error is 2 percentage points, plus or minus. The confidence level of the survey is 95%. The survey is registered with the Superior Electoral Court under number BR-03811/2026. The study cost R$64,000. It was paid with our own resources. Read the study (PDF – 2.4 mB).

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