The announcement of the president of the United States, Donald Trumpabout an import rate of 50% for all Brazilian products Light an alert for small businesses in Brazilespecially in São Paulo, where the concentration of industries is greater.
The measure comes into force on August 1, but the reflexes have already begun to appear at the most sensitive ends of the economic chain.
The economist Felipe Beraldiexpert on OMI indicators, evaluates that the current scenario is already challenging, “given the high level of interest rates and increased cost pressures observed since mid -2024”. With the tariff, the perspective is of aggravation.
“From the perspective of SMEs, the abrupt elevation of import tariffs in the US directly impacts Brazilian companies that export to that market or who maintain relationships with large exporters, “he comments.
Companies that depend on imported inputs or maintained expansion plans to the US market. This is the case of small and medium -sized companies operating in niches such as handcrafted foods and industrial purchasing networks.
A Ice cream layersfor example, it uses Californian pistachio in the production of its ice cream and already projects increased costs.
“We will be affected, first as a whole, since our product is not essential. But it gets worse, because we use California pistachio and we are afraid of other consequences that make the price rise even more. Thereza Cristina.
Lucas Silvaresponsible for Shopping networkwhich brokens negotiations between small industries and suppliers, also points to changes.
“We had impacts, but we are still evaluating if they were negative. They are changing precisely by this tariff process. On the other hand, we had to suspend investments that we would expand our activities to the US, which were scheduled,” said Lucas.
External pressure and internal instability
As for the external scenario, the new tariff package of adds another pressure factor. The measure, which foresees 50%rates, represents a concrete risk for the economic performance of the country and, above all, for SMEs with direct or indirect presence in the US market.
Depending on the rate of tariff implementation, or integrating productive chains linked to bilateral trade may see their plans compromised.
Beraldi points out that “given a possible retaliation of the Brazilian government, companies that depend on raw materials provided by US partners may also be affected.”
“It cannot be mentioned, which tends to result in greater devaluation of the real and increased inflationary pressures, especially affecting SMEs,” he said.
Costs in high and uncertainties
“For 2026, even if some relief is expected, the impact on economic activity tends to take place mainly through the expectations channel, with the beginning of a gradual cycle of – which should still remain at historically high levels (projection of 12.5% per year at the end of 2026). This context should maintain the process of slowdown in the economy, with a more contained GDP growth in the 2025-2026 biennium, ”says Beraldi.
“We see high and asymmetrical risks downward, for two main reasons. In the domestic area, the evolution of tax discussions in an electoral context tends to be complex and uncertain. – One of the country’s main trading partners – can have relevant impacts on the domestic economy in the short term,” concludes the economist.
Also according to Beraldi, the market projects a slowdown of the Brazilian economy between 2025 and 2026, compared to the average growth observed in the postpandery period (2022–2024).
“GDP should grow 2.2% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026 – levels significantly less than 3.2% per year registered between 2022 and 2024,” added the economist, based on Central Bank Focus Bulletin.
PMES performance
According to Beraldi, this adverse economic scenario “also tends to reflect on, for which a more modest evolution in the short and medium term is expected compared to the last years.”
According to updated iode-PMES data (Economic performance index of SMEs)the expectation of advancement to 2025 was reviewed down: +1.3% to +1.0% compared to 2024. “The review reflects the slower resumption than expected after a first trimester marked by retraction in activities,” said Beraldi.
For 2026, the projection points to a 1.9% growth compared to the previous year, “projection quite aligned with the market perspective for general GDP”.
Despite the slowdown, the main anchor for supporting the activity between SMEs remains the consumption of families – driven by increased real income, due to the expansion of labor income and the gradual recovery of the labor market. This movement must ensure a partial breath to the sector, even in the face of a more challenging environment.
Already in the monetary field, there is an expectation of some relief from 2026with the possibility of starting a cycle of cuts in the first quarter of the year. Still, interest should continue at high levels, with projections pointing to 12,5% a year at the end of 2026. The same goes for inflation, which tends to approach the roof of the goal, but without significant setbacks in the short term.
“In any way, as mentioned, The scenario contains a high degree of uncertainties“emphasized the economist.
