Given what it considers a moment of “political inertia” in the negotiations between Brazil and the United States about the tariff, the Coaxuputhe largest coffee farmer cooperative in the country, is investing in communication channels directly with US clients, such as the network Starbucks.
In the coming weeks, a cooperative delegation, the largest Brazilian Arabian coffee exporter, will visit countries in Asia, including China, to try to find new buyers. The information was transmitted to rural producers by the president of COOXUPE, Carlos Augusto Rodrigues de Melo, at the end of the seventh edition of the Coffee and Climate Forum, promoted by the cooperative.
“Coaxupé is in direct contact with customers outside. One of the biggest is Starbucks. The commercial aspect has been well worked. What is missing, and I don’t want to go into political merit, it’s action for dialogue. Divergence is resolved by talking. It can’t have inertia on strong topics, like this,” Melo said.
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Of the 25 million bags consumed in the US last year, Brazil exported 8.1 million. Of this total, between 1.5 million and 1.8 million came from Cooxupé.
Noteworthy that the cooperative “will not fail to provide coffee to the US,” Melo said the entity prepares an excursion to Asia in search of new markets.
“I believe we will never stop doing business with the US. But if we get in the way, we are taking action. We have people who will not only go to China, but to other countries in Asia where consumption is growing,” he told coffee growers on Thursday (14).
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According to Osvaldo Bachião Filho, Vice President of Coaxupé, the US consumer has not yet felt in his pocket the effect of tariff because he is still having a coffee bought in May.
“But for us, Arabica producers, it will surely impact, because it is very difficult to have another customer who pays the same amount, and up to date, as the American does,” he added.
“Relatively promising” climate
The focus of the event was the predictions of how the climate could influence, this year and next, the productivity in the regions of COOXUPE – South Minas, Cerrado Mineiro, Matas de Minas and MOGIANA MEDIAN, in São Paulo.
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For Marco Antônio dos Santos, agrometeorologist at Rural Climate, it is likely to impose on the next crop the La Niña phenomenon, but in a mild version.
“This year, the scenario is relatively promising, quite unlike 2024. The cold is not atypical, it is normal to be cold in July and August. We were unaccustomed. And this year we are not having water deficit,” he said.
With La Niña gaining intensity between October and November, there may be small periods of drought in the summer, he says, “but nothing as strong as last year,” when coffee crop was more than 150 days without significant rains.
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“This year, everything is walking so that summer will be very rainy, regularly. It is a year that rains early, the rains will start from September 10 and 20, and will arrive to stay. And this will favor the granation of coffee,” he said.
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On the other hand, Santos does not rule out the risk of new frosts with polar air intakes in September and October, and there is also a risk of hail rain.
For 2026, the forecast is to return the prevalence of El Niño, resulting in a warmer fall and winter, as in 2023: “For next year, it will be difficult to have the extension of rainfall we will have this year.”
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Asked by colleague José Donizete Alves, professor at the Federal University of Lavras (UFLA), which would choose between El Niño and La Niña, Santos chose the last.
“Thinking about the main coffee producing area, would choose La Niña. In general, in years of La Niña the Brazilian crops, not only coffee, have higher production. And in years of El Niño, there is more crop breed, for excess or lack of water. El Niños have been more intense in the last 20 years,” he added.
