The new restrictions on FGTS anniversary withdrawals, announced by the government on Tuesday (7), should reduce the volume of credit originated by digital and medium-sized banks, but benefit construction companies focused on low income by reinforcing the sustainability of the fund, market analysts point out.
The Ministry of Labor decided. In Bradesco BBI’s assessment, the measure helps preserve FGTS cash, the main funding of popular housing in the country, and should retain R$84.6 billion in the fund until 2030.
“The change is positive for low-income construction companies, as it strengthens the role of FGTS in housing financing”, assesses BBI.
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Today, more than 21.5 million workers have already opted for the birthday withdrawal, surpassing the 20.4 million who remain in the traditional model, withdrawal upon dismissal.
Goldman Sachs, on the other hand, highlights the negative impact for digital and medium-sized banks, which use FGTS advances as credit collateral. The bank estimates that the stock of loans guaranteed by the FGTS reaches around R$90 billion, concentrated in institutions such as Nubank and Inter.
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The new rules, which come into force from November 1st, also limit up to five withdrawals in a period of 12 months, with a maximum discount of R$500 per installment, which should reduce the pace of origination of new loans in this segment.
“The changes could affect FGTS credit origination, an important market for medium and digital banks,” said Goldman Sachs.
