For Chinese leader Xi Jinping, a historic meeting with Donald Trump, expected this week, is an opportunity to showcase something Beijing has long sought: China as equal to the United States on the global stage.
The US president’s trade war with China has challenged Xi’s ambition for growth and innovation, but it has also given Beijing the unexpected gift of a major spotlight to showcase its economic strength.
While much of the rest of the world rushed to please Trump and negotiate a reduction in global tariffs imposed this spring, China responded with its own measures — until both sides were forced to the table for a truce.
In recent weeks, after U.S. rules affected China’s access to American technology and targeted its transportation industry, Beijing responded by announcing a sweeping expansion of export controls on critical rare minerals — a move that rattled Washington and prompted Trump to threaten to impose additional 100% tariffs on Chinese goods.
Both sides appear to have backed away from this latest escalation following last-minute trade talks between key negotiators this weekend in Malaysia.
Xi and Trump are now expected to meet on the sidelines of an international summit in South Korea this Wednesday (29) – their first face-to-face meeting of Trump’s second term, where they are expected to agree on a framework for managing their economic relations. (Beijing, unlike Washington, has not yet officially confirmed the talks.)
It remains unclear what each side agreed to give up to get to this point – and this is just one milestone in a complex and volatile competition between superpowers.
But it will also be a moment when Xi enters the room after consolidating a new reality: China will negotiate, but will not be intimidated.
“China is very calm”
All this does not mean that the stakes are not high for Xi.
Instead of the US working together on global threats as a “G2” of the world’s most powerful economies, Beijing sees the US trying to slow its rise with tariffs, high-tech export controls and political friction.
Current US tariffs on Chinese goods – which amount to more than 50% on average – are putting pressure on the country’s already slowing economy, and these taxes could more than double if the two leaders cannot find an agreement.
While US officials highlight Trump’s ability to “create leverage” to pressure China, on Beijing’s side, the country also sees success in its strategy.
There, the perception is that China is ready for this confrontation: it has created natural leverage through strategic dominance over the global rare minerals chain; diversified trade to depend less on the North American market; and has sought to accelerate innovation that would allow it to reduce dependence on American products, such as cutting-edge semiconductors.
Beijing was “fully prepared” for how Trump might act toward China as he began his second term, according to Wang Yiwei, director of the Institute of International Relations at Renmin University in Beijing.
“But on the U.S. side, any tariff or measure taken by China has helped President Trump realize that China’s capabilities are different from eight years ago… and he understands that what has changed is that the U.S. is no longer the dominant power,” Wang said.
Beijing also continues to guard against future shocks – including in its next five-year plan, which seeks to deepen a top-down push for technological and industrial self-reliance.
“China is very calm in the face of all these conflicts and difficulties created by the United States,” Wang Wen, dean of the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies think tank at Renmin University in Beijing, told a group of journalists last week.
“The United States is still an important partner, but in China’s landscape, the United States is losing its importance,” Wang added.
Two strong men
Both sides gave positive signals after trade talks over the weekend, with , suggesting Beijing would delay its controls on rare earth metals, while the US would back off the 100% tariff threat and extend an earlier tariff truce.
But China has made no such statements, and there is still a risk that the two leaders will not reach a consensus or that an ill-advised comment will compromise the delicate detente. As is often the case in Trump’s diplomacy, much may depend on the chemistry between the two men on the day of the meeting, who last met in 2019. That dynamic was evident on Tuesday in Japan, where Trump got along well with the new conservative prime minister, Sanae Takaishi, and promised that if Japan needed any favors, the US would be on hand.
In the meeting with Trump, Xi’s main priorities will be to try to get the US to reduce tariffs and roll back export controls, according to analysts. To achieve this, he may be willing to relax or delay China’s latest controls on rare earth metals.
China imposed these controls to “coerce the US not to impose comprehensive sanctions on the country” but rather to limit sanctions to “only a few national security sectors,” said Shanghai-based foreign affairs analyst Shen Dingli.
Whether this will work in practice will be tested on Thursday at a meeting where Beijing hopes Trump will treat Xi with the kind of respect and warmth for the Chinese leader that he has shown in recent months and during the election campaign.
China’s top diplomat, Wang, offered a subtle reminder of this in his call with Rubio on Monday.
“Xi and Trump are both world-class leaders, who have engaged with each other for a long time and with mutual respect,” Wang said, according to a summary of the conversation. “Preserving the spirit of equality, respect and mutual benefit” is a key condition for “advancing the bilateral relationship”, he added.
