Data IMF (International Monetary Fund) design the debt gross of the general government of the United States and China in expansion.
In its October report, the IMF indicates that the Asian country’s debt/GDP ratio should exceed 100% next year and achieve 116% em 2030. In relation to the North American economy, the debt/GDP ratio is projected to exceed 140% in five years.
See the projections of FMI:
China
- 2025: 96,3% do PIB;
- 2026: 102,3% do PIB;
- 2027: 106,3% do PIB;
- 2028: 109,7% do PIB;
- 2029: 112,9% do PIB;
- 2030: 116,1% do PIB.
USA
- 2025: 125% do PIB;
- 2026: 128,7% do PIB;
- 2027: 132,7% do PIB;
- 2028: 136,6% do PIB;
- 2029: 140,1% do PIB;
- 2030: 143,4% do PIB.
In the assessment of Rafael Prado, economist at GO Associados, the expansion of North American debt brings greater risk to the global economy. The expert explains that the USA concentrates assets considered safe havens in the world.
“A crisis of distrust in relation to the markets there could put more intense pressure on global financial markets. The trend is what we are already seeing. It is a change in the composition of global asset portfolios”, he told the CNN Money.
Prado cites the gold appreciation process. In October, as investors turned to asset security for protection against global economic and geopolitical uncertainties
“Investors still hold a large part of their capital allocated in dollars, but their exposure to the US dollar has been decreasing. We see many central banks increasing the composition of gold reserves”, said Prado.
In relation to the Chinese economy, the GO Associados economist considers that the growth of China’s debt could negatively affect the commodities market and the currencies of emerging economies more linked to the country.
“This would occur if the government seeks to contain debt by reducing primary deficits, which tends to slow down economic activity. On the other hand, if there is an intensification of the trade war with the United States, the weakening of exports could lead Beijing to adopt new stimulus measures, increasing the deficit and, consequently, public debt”, he stated.
Rafael Prado also highlights that this can attract capital to the domestic fixed income market and reduce the flow of resources destined for other emerging countries, also putting pressure on their interest curves.
The specialist in finance, capital markets and financial education and analyst at CNN Money Gilvan Bueno highlights the importance of the manufacturing and real estate sectors for China.
“An explosion in China’s global debt begins to reduce global growth, reduce the productivity of some companies, generating an increase in unemployment, production chains having high inventories,” the expert told CNN Money.
Bueno mentions, for example, the impact of the collapse of the Chinese company Evergrande on the country’s economy. The real estate sector is responsible for around 1/3 of the country’s GDP.
which has crossed the sector in the country since 2021. At the time, the developer announced that it would not be able to pay its debts of 2.4 trillion yuan (around R$1.7 trillion), a value equivalent to 2% of China’s GDP.
“What were the first signs? The countries that exported there [China] began to have an impact. For example, the steel and mining sector began to experience major problems. The commodities and manufactured sector and the transformation industry experienced problems. These are sectors that provide the first job,” said Gilvan.
