the same dictatorial pressure that led to the syrian rebels a overthrow Bashar al-Assad’s regimepresses, like a pressure cooker, on other countries of the southern Mediterranean. It is the case of Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt y Lebanonwhere a increasing concentration of power in governments and leaders is eroding democratic mechanisms and putting on alert Europaaccording to a report from the Bertelsmann Foundationin which more than 300 experts from universities and prestigious political research centers in more than 120 countriesand which was presented this Wednesday in Barcelona.
“Syria is an example of an autocracy that seemed stable for how [Bashar el Asad] clung to power with the use of force, but it was In fact of a position very fragile“, he explained to EL PERIÓDICO Hauke Hartmannsenior researcher at the Bertelsmann Foundation and co-director of the study. “The collapse of the regime has been amazingly fast, but not that amazinggiven the many destabilizing factors that the regime was able to maintain under a iron repressionuntil he could no longer repress them,” he added.
And it is that, although the political change in Syria has fucked with him foot changed halfway around the worldthe opposition forces did not give up their push to overthrow the Asad family despite the 53 years that was fortified in power. “They failed to get into the regime to change it, but, in the end, They have knocked him down”he pointed out. The question now is “How inclusive will the government that replaces him be?” asks Hartmann and points to encouraging clues, such as the promise to guarantee women’s rights and the willingness to include religious minorities.
Anticipate instability
In it democratic governance index created by the Bertelsmann Foundation, the country of Near East y North Africa what lowest scored it was precisely Syriaalong with Iran y Yemenall of them with less than 2 points (on a scale of 1 to 10), followed by Libya, Sudan and the Lebanonjust on the border of 3 out of 10. explain why the southern Mediterranean is the focus of this year’s report, since autocracies have become strong throughout the region.
The usefulness of this index is that “allows you to identify challenges and anticipate“has said Jaume Duch, Minister of European Union and Foreign Actionwho presented the report on the spot through a video intervention. Syria becomes the perfect exampleranking at the bottom of this ranking prepared with data collected until January 2023.
Europa look south with worryaccording to the report, since a increase in migrations south-north would increase pressure on their borders. Furthermore, the lack of a democratic government like interlocutor hinders the international cooperation. In this sense, Duch has pointed out the importance of “Europe puts the Mediterranean at the center of its new legislature“something he hopes will happen with the creation of an exclusive portfolio for the Mediterranean in the European Commissionin order to promote democracy and prosperity in the neighboring countries to the south.
From Tunisia to Libya
The report also points out the setbacks in the Middle East after the Arab Spring. In the 14 years since then, Tunisiawhich was then seen as a democratization modelhas experienced regressions significant under the leadership of the recently re-elected president Kais Saeedwhich has been concentrating more and more power. In Libyaan autocratic government is also maintained thanks to repression, and Egypt continues under a military regime that severely limits civil liberties.
For its part, Europain addition to being attentive to the probable increase in migrationswhich would further complicate the management of asylum and immigrationmust be aware of the intensification of internal and regional conflictsand the security risks what they entail if they are translated into international terrorist attacks y cyber threats.
