Trump considers launching new large-scale attack on Iran

US President weighs possible military airstrikes against Iranian leaders and security officials, as well as attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities and government institutions

US President Donald Trump is considering a new and important attack on Iran, after preliminary discussions between Washington and Tehran on limiting the country’s nuclear program and ballistic missile production have not progressed, sources close to the matter indicate.

Trump’s latest threats were met with outrage from Tehran, which promised an immediate response to any US military action. One of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s top advisors even threatened to attack Israel if the attack materializes.

This is a rapid change of focus on the US administration’s publicly stated objectives towards Iran, and comes just weeks after Trump seriously considered military action, which he presented as an action in support of protests across the country. Protesters faced violent repression by security forces, resulting in hundreds of deaths.

On Wednesday, Trump published a message on the social network Truth Social demanding that Iran come to the negotiating table for “a fair and equitable agreement – ​​WITHOUT NUCLEAR WEAPONS”. The president warned that the next US attack on the country “will be much worse” than last summer, when the US military attacked three nuclear facilities in Iran.

Options on the table include US military airstrikes against Iranian leaders and security officials believed responsible for the deaths of protesters, as well as attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities and government institutions, the sources indicate. Trump has not yet made a final decision on how to proceed, but believes his military options are now broader than they were earlier this month now that a US aircraft carrier strike group is deployed in the region.

The USS Abraham Lincoln Aircraft Carrier Strike Group entered the Indian Ocean on Monday and continues to approach Iran, where it could support any potential operations against the country, both assisting in attacks and protecting regional allies from possible Iranian reprisals.

The US and Iran have been exchanging messages — including through Omani diplomats and between Trump’s diplomatic envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi — earlier this month about a possible meeting to avoid a US attack, which Trump has been threatening in response to the deaths of protesters.

There was brief discussion about an in-person meeting, but that never materialized, according to a source. There have been no serious direct negotiations between the US and Iran as Trump has stepped up threats of military action in recent days, according to another person close to the matter.

It is not clear why Trump once again focused on Iran’s nuclear program, which, according to him, had been “annihilated” by US attacks last summer. What is certain is that Iran has been trying to rebuild its nuclear facilities even deeper underground, reveals a source with recent information from the US intelligence services on the subject, and has long resisted US pressure to halt uranium enrichment. The regime also banned the UN nuclear agency from inspecting its nuclear facilities.

Amid threats of military action, the US also demanded preconditions for a meeting with Iranian authorities, including a permanent end to uranium enrichment, key to Iran’s nuclear program, new restrictions on Iran’s ballistic missile program and the suspension of all support for Iranian-backed groups in the region.

The main point of contention, according to the same sources, has been the US demand that Iran agree to impose limits on the range of its ballistic missiles — an acute concern for Israel, which spent much of its arsenal of missile interceptors shooting down Iranian ballistic missiles during the 12-day war in June last year. Iran resisted this demand and told the US it would only discuss its nuclear program. The US did not respond, leaving both sides in a stalemate.

A US official said on Monday that the government remains willing to talk to Iran, as long as “they know what the terms are”.

“We are open for business, so if you want to get in touch with us and know what the terms are, then we will talk,” said the person in charge, speaking to journalists.

Without providing further details about these terms, the official added only that these points “were publicized throughout the beginning of the Trump administration, so they are aware of the terms”.

Even so, the US is preparing for possible action. The US military has deployed air defense systems to the region, including additional Patriot batteries, to help protect US forces from possible Iranian retaliation, a US official said. The US also plans to deploy one or more THAAD missile defense systems to the region, according to several sources.

Meanwhile, the US Air Force will conduct a multi-day air exercise in the Middle East, allowing military personnel to demonstrate that “they can disperse, operate and generate combat missions in demanding conditions — safely, accurately and alongside allies”, says Lieutenant General Derek France, commander of the US Air Force Central Command (AFCENT) and commander of the Combined Forces Air Component, cited in a statement.

Iran’s top diplomat, Araghchi, warned on Wednesday that the country’s armed forces are fully prepared to respond “immediately and with force” to any aggression against Iran’s territory, airspace or territorial waters.

“Our courageous Armed Forces are prepared — with their finger on the trigger — to respond immediately and powerfully to ANY aggression against our beloved land, air and sea”, wrote Araghchi in English, on the social network X. The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the statements were a response to Trump’s threats.

Ali Shamkhani, a top adviser to Supreme Leader Khamenei, warned on X that any military action would be considered the start of a war and promised an “unprecedented” response, specifically naming Tel Aviv as a target.

The regime is historically weak, but a decisive blow is unlikely

Recent US intelligence reports, which Trump has been briefed on, indicate that the Iranian regime is in a historically fragile position following US and Israeli attacks on its nuclear sites and allied forces last year, as well as mass protests that erupted earlier this month. Trump hinted last weekend that he wants to see Ali Khamenei removed from power.

“It’s time to look for new leadership in Iran,” Trump told POLITICO on Saturday, reiterating previous statements of support for regime change in Iran.

On Wednesday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told deputies that the Iranian regime “is probably weaker than ever”.

But the Iranian government has previously been in a weakened position, noted one of the intelligence people, and there is no guarantee that Khamenei’s ouster will bring about the downfall of the regime.

“Even if the ayatollah is eliminated, his successors are also all hardliners”, highlighted the same source. Furthermore, other sources add, there is also no indication that Iran’s security services are preparing to turn against the government.

Marco Rubio made the same observation, stressing that “no one knows” who would take power if the supreme leader were deposed.

However, all options remain open for the president, a source close to the discussions told CNN.

Ideally, Trump wants to carry out a powerful and decisive strike that forces Tehran to accept US terms for a ceasefire, an official explained. In the event of an attack on Iran, Trump will want to declare victory quickly.

On Wednesday, on Truth Social, Trump appeared to compare a possible US military operation in Iran with the one he ordered in Venezuela in December to depose then-president Nicolás Maduro. But two US officials said Trump is aware that a military strike against Iran would be much more difficult than a covert operation in Venezuela.

Iran possesses a diverse arsenal of air defense systems, ballistic missiles and one-way attack drones, as well as aging but combat-tested US and Russian fighter jets. Tehran’s military capabilities, even though they are vastly outnumbered and much older than modern American systems, make a decisive strike much more difficult. And, unlike the Venezuelan capital, Tehran is hours from the coast, which poses different challenges for a potential military operation in the region.

The Trump administration also held talks with Venezuela’s interim government before detaining Maduro, paving the way for a transitional regime. According to sources, no similar talks took place on the Iranian side.

Marco Rubio acknowledged on Wednesday that the situation in Iran is “more complex”.

“We are talking about a regime that has been in power for a long time, so a great deal of careful reflection will be necessary if this eventuality materializes”, he indicated, referring to the possibility of regime change in the country.

In a demonstration of rejection of possible US military action, the main American allies, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, ruled out the use of their airspace and territory for an American operation.

The positions of both countries, made public earlier this week, come at a time of strong concerns from Gulf allies and Turkey about potential US military movements, which were communicated to both Tehran and Washington, according to a source close to the discussions.

Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute noted that the Iranian message was likely “that any country that allows the use of this airspace will also be seen as a legitimate target by Iran, and in doing so, they are signaling that this will be very bad for these countries as well.”

An attack on Iran’s Supreme Leader comes with its own challenges. After the June conflict between Israel and Iran, the Israeli Defense Minister acknowledged that the country had no opportunity to attack the ayatollah.

“He was a legitimate target for elimination, but it was not possible this time,” Israel Katz explained in a series of interviews after the conflict.

In the initial offensive in June, Israel eliminated Iran’s highest-ranking military officer, the head of the elite Revolutionary Guard and others, demonstrating the accuracy of the information Israel possessed before the attack. But Israel was never able to locate Khamenei.

Katz, who had already said that Khamenei was marked for death, admitted that Israel was unable to locate the Iranian leader after he went into hiding.

“Khamenei understood this. He hid and even cut off contact with the commanders”, Katz told Kan News. “So at the end of the day, it wasn’t realistic.”

CNN’s Mohammed Tawfeeq contributed to this report.