The decision of the Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) of a year, in the first meeting of 2026, cooled the expectations of part of the real estate sector for a faster cycle of falling interest rates. Associations that represent construction companies and financial agents see the current level as a relevant brake on growth, but still project some monetary relief throughout the year – and hope that this will be enough to sustain the expansion of credit and sales.
On the one hand, ABRAINC (Brazilian Association of Real Estate Developers) adopted a harsh tone, classifying 15% per year as a level “excessively high and incompatible with the growth needs of the Brazilian economy”. On the other hand, Abecip (Brazilian Association of Real Estate Credit and Savings Entities) preserved the optimistic speech – which was the tone of the announcements announced last Tuesday (27).
The backdrop to the market’s reaction is a sector that is coming from a relatively positive cycle, but which depends heavily on more accessible credit to continue moving forward.
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After the downturn caused by the pandemic and interest rate shocks in recent years, the real estate market has regained momentum and in specific niches of demand. Minha Casa, Minha Vida, in its new configuration, helped to sustain launches and sales in the lower income brackets, while medium and high-end segments relied on consumers with higher income and financing capacity.
This movement was accompanied by an increase in the volume of financing, especially with resources from SBPE (savings) and FGTS. However, over a prolonged period, the sector began to insist, more vocally, on the need for a more consistent cycle of monetary easing to unlock new investments, reduce the cost of credit and expand access to home ownership.
In ABRAINC’s assessment, the Central Bank’s decision to maintain the Selic rate at 15% prolongs a situation of monetary tightening that is already taking a high toll on the economy and public accounts.
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“ABRAINC expresses concern about the Copom’s decision to maintain the Selic rate at 15% per year, an excessively high level and incompatible with the growth needs of the Brazilian economy”, stated the entity, in a note, last night (28).
The association draws attention to the weight of interest on the country’s budget. According to ABRAINC, in 2025 Brazil allocated approximately 8,5% do PIB to the payment of interest on public debt, occupying the second position in the world in an IMF ranking that analyzes 190 countries.
The entity argues that interest rates at this level for a prolonged period – rising since September 2024 – restrict credit, discourage productive investment and directly affect labor-intensive sectors – such as civil construction, which tends to be one of the main drivers of employment in growth cycles.
ABRAINC also quantifies the potential impact of a drop in interest rates on public accounts: each 1 percentage point reduction in the Selic could generate annual savings estimated between R$55 billion and R$60 billion in interest expenses.
In the association’s view, these resources today “are drained to service the debt, to the detriment of investment, production and the expansion of employment”.
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Abecip’s speech was more balanced, although it is also anchored in the expectation of a reduction in the Selic rate. In a statement sent to InfoMoney, the association’s president, Priscilla Ciolli, stated that the Central Bank’s decision to maintain the rate at 15% did not change the scenario outlined for 2026.
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“As highlighted in our press conference, Abecip maintains the expectation of a fall in the Selic rate in the second half of this year. The Central Bank’s decision, announced yesterday, to maintain the rate at 15% does not change the positive scenario we project for the real estate credit market in 2026. We remain optimistic, with the sector’s growth perspective at 16% this year”, he stated.
Abecip’s projection is for a 16% increase in real estate financing concessions throughout 2026.
