The study by the Faculty of Economics of the University of Porto warns that, in the scenario analyzed, the North region will concentrate “more than 36% of the negative impact on production“.
The North will be the region “most affected” due to a trade war with the Trump administration’s tariffs, registering a loss of almost 3,300 jobs, which should deserve the Government’s attention “especial”, reveals a study by the Porto Commercial Association.
The document, to which Lusa had access this Friday, warns that it can be said, “with a high degree of certainty, that the North region will be the most affected”, something explained “due to the concentration of a relevant part of the activities most impacted by the increase in tariffs in the United States of America – USA (with the exception of petroleum and related products)”, therefore asking one “special focus” in the Government’s actions.
The study by the Faculty of Economics of the University of Porto warns that, in the scenario analyzed, the North region will concentrate “more than 36% of the negative impact on production (over 300 million euros), more than 45% in terms of GVA [Valor Acrescentado Bruto] (over 120 million euros), almost half in terms of salaries (more than 50 million euros) and well over half (almost 55%) in terms of employment (a drop of almost 3,300 jobs)”.
The investigation Geopolitical Changes and Trade War — Scenarios, Impacts and Recommendations on Policy will be presented on Monday, at 3:00 pm, at Palácio da Bolsa and emerged in response “to the challenge launched by the Porto Commercial Association – Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ACP-CCI) to analyze the possible impacts of the trade war triggered by the Trump administration’s decisions on tariffs”.
The Government’s actions “should take into account asymmetric regional impacts, with the North region having a special focus, as it is the most negatively affected in all the economic variables analyzed”warns the document.
For the president of the ACP, Nuno Botelho, the study “confirms, with a rigorous scientific basis, what many companies are already beginning to feel on the groundnamely that the growing instability of international trade has asymmetric effects and particularly penalizes regions with a strong industrial and export base, such as the North of the country”.
Speaking to Lusa, the person responsible stressed that “anticipating these impacts is essential so that companies and political decision-makers can react in a timely manner and with effective measures.”
“The Government should pay particular attention to the most exposed sectors”
The document’s recommendation is that, “In the short term, the Government should pay particular attention to the sectors most exposed to the increase in US tariffs and the possible European economic slowdown.”
These should “be the subject of selective public support, based on a rigorous diagnosis and business consultation, aiming to avoid drops in demand, production and employment and increase the effectiveness of affected exporting companies”.
Companies must, says the document, look for the “market diversification”.
“The initiation, integration or development of strategic alliances constitutes one of the most promising paths, and it is important, in general, to explore the additional potential of belonging to the Single European Market and special relations with African and Latin American countries”, he points out.
“These actions would make sense even without the change in US tariff policy, taking into account that the geographic concentration of Portuguese exports is clearly excessive”, they maintain.
On the other hand, “structural adaptation of companies should be encouraged, to clearly reduce competitiveness gaps”.
For the document, incentives for innovation, differentiation, technological modernization and digitalization should be “particularly relevant; possible tax changes (elimination of the state surcharge or reduction of IRC) and the reinforcement of logistics infrastructures (investment in ports), along with support for small and medium-sized companies (with the development of specific programs).
It will also be “an adequate response at the level of public policies is important, with Portugal’s reaction following, in the first place, the efforts at European level”.
