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The creation of the federation between PP and União Brasil changes the electoral game in Acre long before 2026. In practice, it concentrates power, votes and mandates in a space that is too small for those who are already inside. And that’s precisely where the silent exit movement begins.
The caption tends to be loud, the space shrinks and not all of them fit/Photo: Reproduction
Today, PP and União Brasil account for six of the eight seats in the Acre federal bench in the Chamber of Deputies. With the federation, these six vacancies will now compete under the same party umbrella. The problem is mathematical and political at the same time: too many people with mandates for little real chance of re-election. The caption tends to be tall, the space shrinks and not all of them fit.
This scenario raises alarm among deputies who know, behind the scenes of the electoral accounts, how they got there. Some of them benefited from the vote pull effect, that classic phenomenon in which a name with a lot of votes ends up carrying less expressive colleagues. In the PP, the most obvious example is Socorro Neri, the most voted in the last election. In União Brasil, Meire Serafim and Coronel Ulysses also passed with robust votes, all above 20 thousand votes.
For those who don’t have this support, running for re-election within such a bloated federation becomes a high-risk bet. And this is where smaller acronyms enter the radar.
PSDB and Podemos appear as natural destinations for these deputies evaluating the exchange. They are parties aligned with the same political camp, the center-right, which reduces the ideological cost of change. Furthermore, they offer something precious in a pre-election year: more space on the ticket and a less congested race.
The logic is simple and known to those who follow elections closely. In smaller parties, the chance of electoral survival increases, especially for parliamentarians who depend more on the coalition’s design than on their own consolidated vote. This is not about programmatic affinity, but about cold calculation.
The União Progressista federation is strong on paper, but at the same time it creates a predictable side effect: it pushes out those who realize they can become extras in an internal dispute that is too tough. PSDB and Podemos are watching, waiting and already feeling the demand growing. The game is still in its infancy, but the initial movements indicate that the musical chairs began well before the campaign.
The scenario
In the PSDB, the list for federal deputy already includes names considered competitive. Minoru Kinpara, Wanda Milani and Pedro Longo appear as the main highlights and give muscle to the tucano project. In this scenario, the eventual arrival of a parliamentarian with a mandate completely alters the internal balance and changes the weight of the dispute within the party.
At Podemos, the design is more level. The party works with names known to the electorate, such as former mayor Mazinho Serafim and former deputy Ney Amorim, without isolated favoritism so far.
The glorious
The MDB is also on the radar as a possible destination for these parliamentarians. In the last elections, the party was unable to elect federal deputy for Acre and saw its main names, Flaviano Melo and Jéssica Sales, stay out of Brasília. To become competitive again, the acronym needs to put together a more robust plate.
This movement, however, goes through a clear political condition. The MDB only tends to attract deputies with a mandate depending on the position it adopts in the dispute for government. All PP and União Brasil parliamentarians are part of governor Gladson Cameli’s base and the tendency is to support Mailza Assis’ pre-candidacy. This narrows the options and practically excludes the possibility of migrating to a party that is not on the same platform as the vice-governor.
