Yet another territorial dispute is shaking up the troubled relationship between the United States and Canada – and it is not the result of Donald Trump’s threat to turn his northern neighbor into an American state.
This week, Canadian leader Mark Carney again called on Trump “respect Canadian sovereignty.”
The request came after the American newspaper Financial Times reported that State Department officials had met three times since April 2025 with leaders of a group advocating the secession of the province of Alberta from Canada.
The group, called the Alberta Prosperity Project, has been pushing for a referendum on the province’s independence and, according to a post on LinkedIn from one of its leaders, plans to ask U.S. Treasury officials for a $500 billion line of credit to “support the transition to a free and independent Alberta.”
A White House official downplayed U.S. involvement in CNNsaying that “government officials met with various civil society groups. No support or commitment was conveyed.”
But the news has reignited outrage in Canada, which seeks to present a united front against the Trump administration’s tariffs and threats to its territory. The leader of British Columbia, a neighboring province, compared the Alberta group’s initiative to “treason.”
Alberta is an oil-rich province in western Canada, roughly the size of the state of Texas.
With a population of around 5 million people, the province is crossed by the Rocky Mountain range and tourist destinations such as Banff e o Lago Louise.
The province has a unique political and cultural identity, driven by its strong energy and agricultural sectors, commitment to economic individualism, and low taxes.
Often dubbed the “energy province,” Alberta has oil sands that account for about 84% of Canada’s total crude oil production.
Politically, it is considered the defender of conservatism in Canada, although its urban centers, Calgary and Edmonton, are more progressive.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has demonstrated friendship with Trump and other Republicans, even visiting the president’s private club, Mar-a-Lago, in January 2025.
This occurred even as their counterparts in other provinces rallied against Trump and his threats to annex Canada and
Alberta separatists have long felt their interests are not well represented in Ottawa, Canada’s capital.
They argue that the federal government’s efforts to curb climate change are hurting Alberta’s oil industry; who pay more federal taxes than they get back; and that its conservative values are drowned out by those of the more liberal and populous eastern provinces.
“The feeling of alienation from relationships has existed since Confederation and certainly since Alberta became a province in 1905,” said Michael Solberg, a partner at the strategic consulting firm New West Public Affairs who served as a political adviser in former Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s government.
“However, sentiment tends to increase during periods when Albertans feel Ottawa is making decisions that directly harm their way of life.”
Federal government-imposed lockdowns during Covid-19 and more than a decade of Liberal leadership in Ottawa have heightened that feeling, and the situation has only worsened as the rest of Canada has united in patriotism against Trump.
Shortly after the prime minister’s Liberals rode the wave of anti-Trump sentiment to win the 2025 federal election in April, the Alberta legislature passed a law making it easier to organize an independence referendum.
However, the separatist movement has no leader or structured campaign and is “driven by a handful of outspoken activists and amplified primarily online,” Solberg said. Neither separatist political party currently holds seats in the Legislative Assembly of Alberta.
a pro-oil conservative, to the White House strengthened the separatist movement and, for some, reshaped its ultimate goal.
In a Alberta independence rally last summer, which was attended by CNNsupporters wore MAGA-style caps emblazoned with “Make Alberta Great Again,” praising Trump as “North America’s best asset” and a potential ally of separatists.
While most rally attendees wanted to see Alberta become a fully independent country, some expressed support for another possibility: for Alberta to become the 51st U.S. state.
In February 2025, a billboard appeared on the highway between Calgary and Edmonton, encouraging viewers to tell Prime Minister Smith that Alberta should “Join the USA!”, superimposed over a photo of her shaking hands with Trump. The billboard was funded by a group that has the slogan “Canadians for the 51st State.”
Senior Trump administration officials have also shown support for Albertans seeking independence.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Alberta is a “natural partner for the U.S.” in an interview with right-wing TV station Real America’s Voice last week.
“They have great resources. Albertans are very independent people,” he said, adding he’s heard there may be a referendum soon.
“People want sovereignty. They want what the US has,” he said.
Bessent said Canada will not allow Alberta to build a pipeline to the Pacific and said, “I think we should let them get to the U.S.”
It is “highly likely” that Alberta will call a referendum on independence, Solberg said. Only twice before has a Canadian province held a plebiscite of this type, both in Quebec, a French-speaking province. More recently, in 1995, voters there decided to remain by a narrow margin.
“Everything indicates that there will be a referendum this fall on whether Alberta should remain in Confederation,” said Michael Solberg, a partner at strategic consulting firm New West Public Affairs who served as a political adviser in former Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s government.
“The situation is critical and is starting to look real,” he added.
Another separatist group, called Stay Free Alberta, has been collecting signatures for a petition for a referendum, and some meetings have drawn large crowds. The group has until May to collect 177,732 valid voter signatures.
However, public opinion polls show that support for Alberta’s independence remains relatively low. One research carried out in January by Pollara Strategic Insights found that just 19% of Albertans said they would support secession.
However, a significant portion of those supporting the referendum may be “symbolic separatists,” said Lori Williams, a political science professor at Mount Royal University in Calgary.
“Some of the people who were in line to sign a petition to force a referendum on separation said they simply wanted to send a message to Ottawa so that Alberta would have a stronger negotiating position.”
Another citizen petition, this time from the side opposing secession, requesting a referendum, has already been approved, gathering more than 400 thousand signatures.
Some of the most vocal criticism of the idea comes from indigenous communities, whose treaties with the Canadian state are older than the province of Alberta itself.
Under pressure from this community, the government added a clause to the referendum bill that guarantees their treaty rights regardless of the result.
Smith, the province’s leader, has said she does not support secession but has refused to denounce those lobbying for it, calling their complaints “legitimate.”
Even if the referendum were to pass, the secession process would be “extraordinarily complex and destabilizing,” Solberg said.
There is no set roadmap for what secession would entail, Solberg said, especially with questions about whether the ultimate goal is independence or union with the US.
“These are unresolved questions, or at least they do not yet have satisfactory answers, and the legal and economic risks remain immense.”
