Donald Trump’s decision to radically change transatlantic foreign policy appears to cause one of the biggest paradigm shifts in global geopolitics since the fall of the Soviet Union and could be a long-term strategic mistake by the United States.
The post-World War II period and the formation of NATO in 1949 gave birth to a system of global governance based on a foreign policy carried out in a consistent and consequential manner. The reconstruction of Western Europe with the Marshall Plan guaranteed, through a win-win policy, economic stability in the old continent while paving the way for ideological fidelity based on common values of liberal democracies.
The 13 billion dollars used to raise Europe from the ashes represented trillions of dollars in multilateral trade in almost eight decades and allowed the North Americans exclusive access to the geostrategic regions of the Atlantic, Mediterranean and Arctic, not only to protect their military interests, but also to stop Soviet efforts in the same locations.
Despite the binarism that permeates North American politics, always divided into two camps, Republicans and Democrats, conservatives and liberals have always done everything they can to not only preserve, but also strengthen the ties between the United States and Europe. For a long time, this was an unquestionable constant for the State Department and the White House, who saw in this alliance the reasons for an economically strong and militarily secure America.
However, nothing lasts forever, not even the concepts considered most solid in state policy. In the case in question, Donald Trump, with a disruptive character, would be the figure who would topple the first domino of the
sequence that would lead to a chain reaction with unpredictable consequences.
The MAGA (Make America Great Again) ideology brings very specific nuances in relation to foreign policy. THE Isolationist vision of a self-sufficient United States without the need for interaction with the world is predominant, but contrasts internally with ideological sectors who defend more archaic practices such as exacerbated economic protectionism and even certain forms of territorial expansionism.
This internal dichotomy is perhaps the point of greatest difficulty for diplomats, traditional politicians and political scientists to interpret the actions and intentions of the North American leader. At the same time as Trump seeks to isolate the United States from the world, he also does everything to alienate his closest allies.
The European case is a problem that has been constantly developing over the last year. THE and the gradual abandonment of Ukraine served as solid reasons for the Baltic countries, Romania and even Poland to move away from American interests and question their intentions in mediating a peace plan between Ukrainians and Russians.
Like France, Germany and Italy. Finally, the crusade launched by Trump to conquer the Danish territory of Greenland at all costs ended up pushing aside the Nordic countries and other smaller nations completing the list.
Currently, Europe is forced to look to other parts of the planet to make up for the North American absence. The free trade agreement with Mercosur was recently signed at the European Commission, in addition to a very similar agreement with India. Many countries have strengthened their bilateral relations with China and looked more closely at individual Middle Eastern nations.
In a world of global production chains and where win-win policies have been the most successful in history, thinking about economics and foreign policy as a zero-sum game can end up being costly. The strength of North American innovation, the robustness of its economy and the enormous lack it has caused to the European, Mexican, Canadian, Australian economies, etc., are undeniable. However, the need created to fill this void created by Trump could end up strengthening strategic adversaries in the medium and long term, in addition to creating a fracture in trust between the parties that will be difficult to repair.
The path is still uncertain, only a year has passed, but it is a fact that in January 2029, when the White House has another tenant, transatlantic relations will be totally different.
*This text does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Jovem Pan.
