Wheat futures contracts began the week falling on the Chicago Stock Exchange (CBOT), pressured by a scenario of ample global supply. According to Agrinvest, cereal prices fell by more than 2% throughout the session this Monday (02), following the negative movement of corn.
Contracts for delivery in March 2026 closed the day at US$5.27 per bushel, equivalent to a devaluation of 1.90%. Contracts expiring in May 2026 closed at US$5.36 per bushel, down 1.73%.
Another factor that contributed to the scenario of falling future prices were statements by the President of the United States, Donald Trump, indicating direct action in the negotiations to end the war between Russia and Ukraine.
“This signal quickly reduced the geopolitical risk premium that was being incorporated into wheat prices, especially as it involves one of the main cereal exporting regions,” reported Agrinvest.
According to Safras & Mercado, futures contracts mitigated losses at the end of the session. Throughout the day, wheat registered more intense drops, but found some breathing room at the close and ended the session with a less pronounced drop.
Agrinvest also reported that the negative pressure was also due to soybean oil futures prices, influenced by the strong decline in oil references, which accelerated the downward movement at the beginning of this week.
In the climate field, Safras & Mercado reported that the market also remains attentive to the impacts of the North American climate on the harvest and that the presence of snow cover in important producing regions in the United States reduced the immediate risks for winter wheat crops, which limited more consistent support for prices.
According to information from Tranding View, the intense cold in the main producing regions of the United States and the Black Sea has offered some recent support to prices.
“Although the snow will help protect some crops from the harsh winter, the market is monitoring forecasts of more severe frosts in Ukraine throughout this week, which could cause damage to winter wheat crops,” Tranding View reported.
On the demand side, North American wheat export inspections totaled 326,828 thousand tons in the week ending January 29, according to data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).
The volume was below that recorded in the previous week, but exceeded that observed in the same period last year.
In the 2025/26 harvest year, which began on June 1st, inspections reached 16.69 million tons, above the 14.07 million tons recorded in the same period in the previous season.
Still, this advance has not been enough to offset the significant growth in global supply.
Argentina
On the international scene, the wheat harvest in Argentina is practically complete and records a record production of 27.8 million tons, according to data from the Rosario Stock Exchange and the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange.
The United States Department of Agriculture estimates that in the 2025/26 cycle it will reach 842.2 million tons, the largest volume in history. Global ending stocks are projected at 278.3 million tonnes, the highest in recent years.
This situation indicates that, this season, the growth in world production exceeded the increase in demand, a factor that explains the downward trend in prices on the international market and which should continue to influence prices over the coming months.
Brazilian market
In the Brazilian market, wheat prices remain under pressure and have reached their lowest level in the last five years. According to a survey by Scot Consultoria, in Paraná, the price fell 1.2% in the monthly comparison and reached R$ 1,168.39 per ton. A month ago, the value was R$1,182.32 per ton.
In the annual comparison, the drop is even more significant. In the same period of 2024, the cereal was traded at R$1,406.41 per ton, which represents a devaluation of 16.9%.
According to the January report from (CONAB), Brazilian wheat production was revised downwards by 87.8 thousand tons in the recently harvested crop, totaling around 7.9 million tons, a volume 0.2% lower than that recorded in the previous cycle.
Despite lower production, stocks remain high. With the release of final export data for 2025 by the Foreign Trade Secretariat, the estimate of final stocks was revised to 2.2 million tons, the highest level in the last six years, which reinforces the comfortable supply environment in the domestic market.
Furthermore, the seasonal factor starts to gain relevance throughout the first half of the year. Historically, the off-season period in Brazil tends to offer greater support to prices, acting as a counterpoint to the global scenario of ample supply and limiting more intense downward movements, with room for specific recoveries in the coming months.
