She fears that she cannot rely on security guarantees from her allies in any potential peace deal and must therefore be prepared to stand alone as a “steel hedgehog” to prevent the Russians from returning for another attack.
The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, called on Kiev last year to turn the country “into a steel hedgehog, indigestible for current and future attackers”. This means a permanently huge military, heavy investment in the latest technologies and missiles, as well as domestic production of weapons systems.
“Ukraine has gone through a fundamental rethinking of what security guarantees mean and what they should be based on,” Alyona Getmanchuk, head of Ukraine’s mission to NATO. “In the past, the vision focused primarily on protection commitments from partners. Today, however, there is a clear understanding that the core of any security guarantee must be the Ukrainian military and its defense industry.”
Without NATO, with its own forces
For this to happen, Ukraine must create a sustainable defense sector, reform its procurement systems, reorganize recruitment, continue improving drone technology, develop long-range missiles, equip its forces with modern tanks, artillery and fighter jets (Kiev has outlined a deal to acquire up to 150 Swedish Saab fighters JAS-39E Gripen) and secure billions in aid to build a military that Russia will fear attacking again.
Ukraine’s future security “is primarily about production resilience,” said Ikhor Fedirko, chief executive of the Ukrainian Defense Industry Council. “Not individual weapons systems or one-off technological leaps, but the ability of the defense industry to operate over time, under pressure, with predictable production.”
The security guarantees are deemed necessary as US President Donald Trump has ruled out Ukraine’s preferred option of being invited to NATO, which protects its members through Article 5 of collective defence.
Without NATO membership, Ukraine is forced to rely on bilateral security agreements, which it views with distrust due to past unfulfilled commitments from the US and UK. Although European allies are considering a military presence after a deal and the US says it will act as a guarantor, Russia openly opposes any guarantees. The credibility of US commitments is further questioned due to Trump’s unpredictable policy. With guarantees seen as weak, Kiev concludes that its mainstay of security must be its own forces.
Defense building
Ukraine considers it necessary to maintain a large army as a key pillar of deterrence and insists on maintaining a force of 800,000 troops. However, ongoing conflict, widespread draft evasion and desertions make building a strong peacekeeping army particularly difficult and expensive.
For this reason, Kyiv is planning deep reforms, with an emphasis on improving education, reorganizing management, digitizing and strengthening leadership, to increase efficiency and reduce dropouts.
According to Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, extensive digitization and other reforms are coming. “Our goal is to transform the system: advance military reform, improve frontline infrastructure, eliminate lying and corruption, and cultivate a new culture of leadership and trust so that those who deliver real results are rewarded and given opportunities for advancement.”
Killer drones
Ukraine relies much of its deterrent power on drones, which are inflicting heavy casualties on Russia and are seen as critical to deterring another attack.
Kiev is investing heavily in unmanned systems, missiles and electronic warfare, but points out that technological progress cannot pay off without modernizing the organizational structure.
Despite the significant production potential of the defense industry, much of it remains untapped due to a lack of funding and long-term contracts. Ukraine seeks European support and investment in defense, while international security guarantees are seen as complementary – not a substitute – for strengthening its own military capabilities.
In 2025, the Ministry of Defense awarded contracts for 4.5 million FPV drones and spent more than 110 billion hryvnias (2.1 billion euros) on drone-related procurement, three times the amount compared to the previous year.
Ukraine is also developing its own missiles. If it has sufficient numbers, it could threaten Russia’s refineries, infrastructure and military targets with devastating strikes in the event of another attack.
Earlier promises by the Fire Point company – to produce about 200 Flamingo FP-5 missiles a month, with a 1,150 kg warhead and a range of 3,000 km – did not materialize, although some were used to strike Russian targets.
Ukraine, however, has other long-range cruise missiles and drones that can strike targets deep inside Russia. At the same time, in collaboration with the United Kingdom, it is working on the development of a tactical ballistic missile with a range of 500 kilometers and a warhead of 200 kilograms.
