As for the state of democracy – many doubts remain. And there are new doubts
US says Venezuela is changing. But, a month after Maduro’s capture, Venezuelans are not so sure
by CNN
A month after the US carried out an attack in Venezuela to capture President Maduro, civilians in this South American country remain divided between uncertainty and expectations of government changes.
Some believe that the ouster of authoritarian leader Nicolás Maduro offers a ray of hope for rebuilding institutions and guaranteeing citizens’ rights. Others question whether this new phase – which the US and the government of interim president Delcy Rodríguez call “transition” – will lead to democracy or whether the change they hope for will be put on hold.
The days following the invasion of Maduro’s residence have been slow and difficult, according to a woman who saw the explosions from a distance with her boyfriend. The woman, a bioanalyst who lives in the east of Caracas and who asked to remain anonymous for security reasons, says she is still recovering from the trauma. He doesn’t go out at night and suffers from anxiety, especially if he hears fireworks or loud noises. He explains that he is closely monitoring the situation in the country, waiting to see if a fundamental change is possible. “A real change”, he summarizes.
First weeks, first actions
According to the Minister of the Interior, Diosdado Cabello, at least 100 people died and another 100 were injured in the North American operation, which culminated in the arrest of Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, who was also a deputy.
Delcy Rodríguez, then vice president, assumed the role of interim president after the Supreme Court declared Maduro’s detention a forced absence – an unprecedented situation and not foreseen in the Venezuelan Constitution. Since then, Rodríguez has insisted that the country is experiencing a new political moment, having already made several changes to the cabinet and the Bolivarian National Armed Forces. According to experts consulted by CNN, Rodríguez promoted at least 28 significant changes in the Armed Forces.
However, a month after Maduro’s capture, and although some see reasons for optimism in the economy and the release of political prisoners, the country remains on an uncertain path.
In Caracas, the mood oscillates between skepticism, optimism and perplexity. Meat and chicken prices fell, property prices rose 22%, according to economist Asdrúbal Oliveros. Airlines are starting to resume flights to Venezuela, including American Airlines. However, Venezuela remains on the list of countries with partial visa restrictions. The deportation of Venezuelans continues to be a focus of the Trump administration.
The US Embassy in Caracas has resumed its activities with Laura Dogu as the country’s main representative. Venezuela appointed diplomat Félix Plasencia as its representative in Washington. Dogu made it clear, on social media, that his meeting with Delcy Rodríguez and her brother, the president of the National Assembly, Jorge Rodríguez, aimed to reiterate three priorities outlined by the US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio: stabilization, economic recovery and reconciliation and transition. Venezuela’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Yván Gil, stated that this step marks the beginning of a new era in which Venezuela is committed to respecting international law.
Some politicians, such as opposition figures Andrés Velásquez and Delsa Solórzano, have come out of hiding now that Venezuela is no longer governed by Maduro. But, at the same time, they say they remain cautious, just like citizens who are critical of those in power.
Carlos Núñez, an administrator by profession, remains hopeful, believing that the release of political prisoners could set a precedent in the country. This man believes that many legal, economic and social issues still need to be addressed. However, the releases represent a big step towards change, he says.
Meanwhile, for Jessica Díaz, graphic designer, things are going well. He does not believe that changes are necessary. “I hope the president and his wife return.”
Another citizen, who preferred to remain anonymous for his own safety, admits that he remains vigilant because, despite promises of change, fear persists. “Even law-abiding citizens can be stopped on the street at any time for a search or questioning.”
Waiting for a transition
Benigno Alarcón, an expert on Venezuelan politics who has studied and taught about political transitions around the world, says that, a month after Maduro’s departure, “the transition has not yet truly begun.” He explains that even Rubio’s testimony to Congress last week – when the Secretary of State stated that the US was prepared to help oversee Venezuela’s transition from a criminal state to a responsible partner – suggests that it is a preparatory phase.
During a forum on the Venezuelan transition, which took place in Caracas on January 29, Alarcón described the current situation as an unprecedented, coercive and uncertain process. The expert stated that a genuine transition requires three converging elements that are currently absent: a new effective government; an institutional change in rules; the decentralization of control of security forces. Alarcón concluded that it is not yet possible to say that Venezuela is in transition, noting that those who want democracy expect progress in this direction.
According to Alarcón, those in power have no desire to hold elections in the near future because they know that it would not bring them any benefits. On the contrary, they intend to postpone them as long as possible. The analyst also believes that Delcy Rodríguez, in her role as interim president, seeks to extend the constitutional deadlines to remain in power, with the support of the judiciary, in an unprecedented scheme of forced absence.
“It will all depend on the polls. If they see a chance of winning, they call elections. Otherwise, they postpone them”, he argues. “They want to buy time and maintain power”, summarizes Alarcón, adding that external pressure from the US is fundamental but insufficient. “Washington can offer incentives, but legitimacy only comes from the Venezuelan people through their vote. Society needs to demand democracy.”
Regarding the opposition leader, María Corina Machado, she states that her presence abroad facilitates dialogue with governments. However, he believes he should return to Venezuela soon.
Alarcón welcomes the reopening of the US embassy – not for visas, but for “intelligence and economic controls in a country in conflict” – as well as the military’s symbolic promise of subordination to Delcy Rodríguez as interim president.
However, the expert wants the promises to be fulfilled. The government claims to have released more than 800 political prisoners, but says authorities must identify released detainees. University students have demanded that releases not be accompanied by restrictions.
Alarcón also states that people are becoming impatient with the slowness of the process. Still, he says, it is moving forward in an orderly manner, which raises the question of whether this coercive model will work or whether delays will persist.
“Full” release of political prisoners
Juan Carlos Apitz, dean of the Faculty of Legal and Political Sciences at the Central University of Venezuela, believes that the current moment does not represent a complete transition nor the continuation of the current regime. It is rather a “moment for citizens”, who must establish democracy, respecting the Constitution and the results of the elections of July 28, 2024. The opposition claims that its candidate, Edmundo González, won and that it has the results of the counting to prove it. The National Electoral Council insists that Maduro was the winner, but refuses to release the minutes.
From Apitz’s perspective, “the first step towards democracy in Venezuela is the full and unconditional release of all political prisoners”. The expert believes that, in this sense, mere visits to inmates are unacceptable. Families continue to wait and the repressive apparatus has not been dismantled, he says.
The analyst also questions what he considers to be the military paradox of January 28, when the armed forces recognized Delcy Rodríguez as commander-in-chief, a position incompatible with Maduro holding that position. “There cannot be two commanders.”
Apitz also emphasizes that, when discussing January 3rd, mention is made of the victims but no one is held responsible. “Where are the public authorities who allowed territorial integrity to be violated and Maduro’s removal to occur?”
