The governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas, will need to untie, in the coming months, a series of knots with the potential to increase clashes with Bolsonarism in the construction of his ticket in the state. In addition to the pressure for Tarcísio to migrate from the Republicans to the PL, the party of former president Jair Bolsonaro seeks to displace the PSD and nominate his vice-president in the race for re-election. Furthermore, the plan of the most ideological wing of the party to launch two names linked to the Bolsonarist right to the Senate in São Paulo displeases Tarcísio, who prefers that one of the candidates be from the center, as a way of neutralizing the left. On another front, changes in positions at the state Public Security secretariat promise to generate discomfort with Bolsonaro’s allies.
As O GLOBO showed, the movement of senator and presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) to launch an offensive for the PL to launch candidates for governor in all states puts pressure on the São Paulo president to change parties. The governor, however, does not want to leave the Republicans. His electoral calculation is that a candidacy for the PL would be seen in São Paulo as more to the right than he intends to appear, and could alienate the support of Centrão parties.
In parallel, the PL has intensified actions to nominate the candidate for vice-governor on Tarcísio’s ticket. The pressure increased after the president of the PSD, Gilberto Kassab, who is also the Secretary of Government of São Paulo, announced the PSD affiliation of the governor of Goiás, Ronaldo Caiado, then with União Brasil.
Opportunity with security!
The movement led the president of the PL, Valdemar Costa Neto, to ask for more space in the state government and appoint the president of the Legislative Assembly of São Paulo (Alesp), André do Prado (PL), as vice president. There is a tendency, at this moment, for the position to continue with the PSD, according to GLOBO, with favoritism for the current occupant of the position, Felício Ramuth.
The PL’s justification is that the party is the largest in Alesp and was responsible for an important part of the achievements that Tarcísio will display in the elections, such as the privatization of Sabesp, voted on under the presidency of Prado. An ally of Kassab assesses, however, that the decision on Tarcísio’s vice-president will be made exclusively by the governor and that “it is still too early to decide”. For this group, the PL would already be offered a place in the Senate race, the presidential candidacy of Flávio Bolsonaro and the vice-mayorship of São Paulo (with Mello Araújo). If he also became Tarcísio’s vice president, he would leave the PSD, a first-time ally of the governor, without space.
Another ally of the governor claims that Valdemar wants to nominate his vice-president because the PL’s vacancy in the race for the Senate in São Paulo will not pass his scrutiny, as it belongs to the “quota” of former federal deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL-SP), out of the country since March last year — and before that he was a candidate for the vacancy.
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The preparation for the Senate election is another point of concern for Tarcísio. The first wave is headed by federal deputy Guilherme Derrite (PP), former state secretary of Public Security in the state, and Bolsonaro supporters are working to define the second wave, including Eduardo, who is trying to maintain influence on the direction of the São Paulo campaign, and pastor Marco Feliciano (PL). In a recent meeting with Jair Bolsonaro, however, the governor expressed his preference for launching a centrist name in the second wave.
Tarcísio has expressed concern about the possibility of not electing senators from his political group in October, especially if one of those chosen to represent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad — the majority ticket could also include the vice-president, Geraldo Alckmin (PSB), ministers Simone Tebet (MDB), Marina Silva (Rede) and Márcio França (PSB). The assessment is that a bet on a Bolsonarist double would be insufficient to guarantee the two seats and would open space for the dispersion of votes in the moderate conservative electorate.
The equation is complex because Eduardo Bolsonaro was considered the right candidate at the polls until March last year, when he decided to travel to the United States alleging persecution by the Federal Supreme Court (STF) and coordinate sanctions against Brazilian authorities with American President Donald Trump. The parliamentarian, who had his mandate revoked due to faults, defended state deputy Gil Diniz (PL), known as “Carteiro Reaça” and one of the targets of the fake news investigation, and Marco Feliciano himself as a replacement.
Four years ago, Feliciano was passed over for the Senate race. Astronaut Marcos Pontes (PL), former Minister of Science, ran with the support of Bolsonaro. He was considered a more technical and less ideological name, with appeal to the average voter due to his trajectory. Allies say that the former president would have promised one of this year’s vacancies to Feliciano, causing a new impasse.
On Wednesday, Tarcísio stated that the choice will be made “later on” and will take into account data from electoral polls:
“We’re going to do research, test the names, so we can see who is most suited to run for this second Senate seat. We know it’s going to be a tough, disputed election, and we’re going to look for the best names to be very competitive.”
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Exchange at secretariat
The appointment of a public disaffected Guilherme Derrite to the executive secretariat of the Public Security portfolio tends to increase Tarcísio’s difficulties in these negotiations. The choice of Henguel Pereira, number two in the secretariat — led since Derrite’s departure by delegate Osvaldo Nico Gonçalves, known as Nico — was made official on Tuesday.
The new secretary arrived with carte blanche to change the Military Police and has already dismissed Colonel Cássio Araújo de Freitas as head of the department’s cabinet. There is an expectation that names close to Derrite will be fired. Since taking office, Nico has also promoted changes in the Civil Police.
