The nuclear arms limitation treaty between the United States and Russia, known as New START, expired this week, but the Americans have already made it clear that a renewal will not be possible without the inclusion of China. Secretary of State Marco Rubio also said he will not accept the US being harmed in a future new agreement. “We will always negotiate from a position of strength,” he wrote today on the Substack platform.
Rubio criticized in the text readings made by arms control advocates, some from the media, that the expiration of the agreement would be a sign that the United States is starting a new nuclear arms race.
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“These concerns ignore that Russia failed to implement the New START treaty in 2023 after years of flouting its terms. A treaty requires at least two parties, and the choice facing the United States was whether to bind unilaterally or recognize that a new era demands a new approach,” he said.
He argued that a new pact cannot be like START, but something new, that is, a treaty that reflects that the US could soon face not one, but two nuclear peers: Russia and China.
Rubio cited that the expansion of China’s nuclear arsenal since New START took effect has rendered previous arms control models based on bilateral agreements between the United States and Russia obsolete.
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“Since 2020, China has increased its stockpile of nuclear weapons from fewer than 200 warheads to more than 600, and is on track to have more than 1,000 warheads by 2030. An arms control agreement that does not take into account China’s buildup, which Russia supports, will undoubtedly leave the United States and our allies less secure,” he argued.
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The Secretary recalled that, during the Cold War, few negotiations were as complex as those between the United States and the Soviet Union to limit and reduce their vast nuclear arsenals. And that conversations required trust between adversaries who had little reason to believe each other’s words, so they relied on constant, intricate systems to check compliance.
Still, he recalls, American statesmen persevered and reached a series of agreements, first with the Soviet Union and then with the Russian Federation, that made the United States safer.
Trump’s principles
With this realization that the world has changed, Rubio stressed that President Donald Trump has been “clear, consistent and unequivocal” in stating that future arms control must address not one, but both equivalent nuclear arsenals. “Our call for multilateral nuclear arms control and strategic stability negotiations, presented today in Geneva, reflects the principles that President Trump has established,” he said.
The first of these principles, according to Rubio, is that arms control can no longer be a bilateral issue between the United States and Russia. “As the President has made clear, other countries have a responsibility to help ensure strategic stability, none more so than China.”
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Second, he said that terms that harm the United States or ignore noncompliance in the search for a future agreement will not be accepted. “We have made our standards clear and will not compromise them to achieve gun control for the sake of gun control,” he added.
The third point cited is that the US will always negotiate from a position of strength, Rubio said. “Russia and China should not expect the United States to stand by while it evades its obligations and expands its nuclear forces. We will maintain a robust, credible, and modernized nuclear deterrent. But we will do so while pursuing all avenues to satisfy the President’s genuine desire for a world with fewer of these terrible weapons,” he explained.
For the Secretary of State, this process may take time, as previous agreements, including New START, took years to negotiate and were built on decades of precedent. “However, just because something is difficult doesn’t mean we shouldn’t pursue it or settle for less. No one understands that difficult deals are often the only ones worth more than President Trump,” he argued.
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“Today in Geneva, we are taking the first steps towards a future where the global nuclear threat is reduced in reality, not just on paper. We hope others will join us.”
