The specter of a huge war looms Near Eastwith much of the us fleet surrounding a Iran who promises to extend his conflict against USA to the entire region. To prevent this from happening in the coming days—a real and very high possibility—delegations of Tehran y Washington They met this Friday in Omanin negotiations classified as “distrustful but positive.”
Is there a chance that these talks will prevent a US war against Iran? Below we break down the negotiations, in five keys:
This has been, precisely, the biggest point of disagreement between Iran and the US: while Washington has insisted on negotiating over the nuclear programhe missile programsupport for regional militias and violence against protesters in Iran, the Islamic Republic He only agrees to talk about his nuclear program.
The US Secretary of State, Marco Rubiowent so far as to assure this week that just negotiating on nuclear issues would not be enough to deter the US from attacking Iran. The talks this Friday in Oman, however, have been only nuclearaccording to the Tehran version The talks continue; The shadow of a possible war between the two countries still remains.
At the moment, few concrete details have emerged about what was discussed in Oman, apart from the commitment to keep talking. Precedents, however, show that this guarantees nothing: in June, while Washington and Tehran were also speaking in Oman, Israel launched a surprise attack that led to the 12-day war between Iran and the Jewish State, in which American warplanes participated.
That war broke up the then nuclear negotiations, greatly weakened the Islamic Republic and pushed it towards a economic abyss that has left the regime in weakest point of from the Islamic revolution of 1979.
According to experts, nothing is clear in these negotiations: if the US demands concessions that Iran is not willing to give – such as the handover of its enriched uraniuma limit on its missile program, the end of support for militias like Hezbollah or Hamas or the transfer of more rights to the punished Iranian population—then the current situation points in one direction: the resumption of the June conflict.
This time, however, it would be different. In June, Israel’s bombings, with American support, were never aimed at the definitive defeat of the regime of the Iranian supreme leader, the Avoid ali jameneíbut its weakening both at the military and nuclear levels.
Tel Aviv achieved it: it almost completely beheaded the Army and the Iranian Revolutionary Guardwhich in recent months has mutated under the leadership of Khamenei into a much more horizontal organization, with a chain of command that can continue functioning in the event of losing one or more pieces.
A new war would be a turning point for Iran. Tehran now lives cornered internationally and nationally, especially after the massacres against protesters this January. A US attack, unlike in June, would be seen as a motion to the whole against a regime, the Iranian one, that threatens to respond with everything, unlike what it did in June, when Tehran always sought to cause the minimum possible damage in their responses against Israel and the US.
“We are even more prepared than in June. If someone wants to attack us, they will receive a harsh response. If the US intervenes, this will change the status quo of the entire regionand will pass the limits of a bilateral war,” declared the Iranian Foreign Minister in recent days, Abbas Araghchiwho led the Iranian delegation this Friday in Oman
This threat of large-scale conflict throughout the Middle East has made even regional rivals of the Persian country, such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates They cooperate in mediation attempts with the United States, led by Oman, Türkiye and QatarStates that maintain good relations with both Washington and Tehran. All capitals in the region hold their breath as they make calls to calm tensions.
In the last two weeks, the American president, Donald Trumphas displaced the Persian Gulf what he himself has described as his “army”, which is ready to attack Iran in case the New York magnate gives the order. This fleet contains seven destroyers, three combat ships and the aircraft carrier USS Lincoln.
To all this, of course, are added the planes, fighter jets and bombers that the US has in its regional bases, especially in Qatar, Jordan and Türkiye. In recent days the Pentagon has also been strengthening them.
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