Saudi Arabia and the Emirates: the Gulf Cold War

El Periódico

The monarchies of Persian Gulf They have in common their unbreakable alliance with the USwhich does not prevent them from having differences each other and that each one tries to defend its interests and project its power and influence in the region. It became clear in 2017, when part of them imposed a , which included the border closure. Today those who face are Saudi Arabia y United Arab Emirates (UAE). The clash takes place outside their territories in a kind of cold war in the region. The battle scenes are , and . The three countries live civil warsalthough that matters little to Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, which, with their interventionismcontribute to the greatest humanitarian crises of this century.

In all three conflicts, Saudi Arabia and the UAE defend opposing factions. The Saudis are betting on strong states that maintain territorial unit and let them give stability to the region. They search security to protect your economic and geopolitical interests. The Emiratis, on the other hand, like to fish in troubled rivers. They provide military support to local rebel groups, secessionists in the case of Yemen and Somalia.

In Yemen, a country devastated by more than 10 years of war, the two Arab powers led a military coalition in 2015 to fight the Houthisthe allied Shiite militia Iranwhich a year earlier had conquered the capital, Sanaa, and the northeast of the country. Today the Houthis continue to control 30% of the territory.

The rest of the country is under the command of the anti-Houthi coalition Presidential Leadership Council (PLC)recognized as the legitimate government by the UN. Some of its members defend the unity of the country, like the Saudis. The other, secession. The separatists form the Southern Transition Council (CTS)which has the military support of the Emirates.

With the support of the CTS, Abu Dhabi seeks to have a presence on the islands, ports and other enclaves in the Red Sea and the golfo de Adenthe strategic maritime corridor through which a good part of the world’s goods transit.

Armed incident

Tension between the two monarchies – united against the Houthis but rivals within the Government – ​​rose in tone at the end of last year, when the CTS militiamen launched a military offensive against the southeastern provinces, then under the control of Yemeni forces supported by the Saudis. One of the provinces, Hadramaut, rich in oil, shares 800 kilometers of border with Saudi Arabia. Riyadh was quick to react. Fighter jets bombed Emirati military material that was destined for separatist forces. It was the first armed incident between the two countries. Following the attack, the UAE withdrew its soldiers deployed in Yemen and the CTS was disbanded.

In the case of Somaliathe UAE maintains strong investments in infrastructure and presence in two separatist autonomous regions: Puntland y Somaliland. The latter, located in the northwest of the country, has functioned de facto as an independent State since 1991. Recently Israel became the first country in the world in , a territory bathed by the waters of the Gulf of Aden. At one point on the coast is the port of Berbera, a strategic enclave that Tel Aviv could use as a logistics center for operations in the region.

The Emirati monarchy maintains very good relations with Israel. It is one of the few Arab countries that joined the , which Saudi Arabia has not yet done. While the UAE maintained a complicit silence in the face of the Jewish State’s decision, the Saudis condemned it and the Somali Government called it a “flagrant attack” on its territorial integrity. In response, the Government of Mogadishu annulled all security and defense agreements signed with the Emirates.

Sudan

The Somali province of Puntland, for its part, serves the UAE as a military support base for one of the factions in the war of the Sudan. One of its coastal cities, Bosaso, is the arrival point of armament destined for the paramilitaries of the Rapid Support Force (RSF) of the general Mohamed Dagalo. For almost three years, the RSF has been facing the Sudanese regular army of General Abdel Fattah Al Burhan, an ally of the Saudis.

In Bosaso, the UAE has a military base and a barracks for mercenaries from different countries, including Colombians, who fight alongside Dagalo. Emirati companies are in charge of searching for paid soldiers to fight in Sudan. In exchange for military support, Abu Dhabi receives large tons of gold from the rich mines controlled by paramilitary forces. The UAE has become one of the markets for oro largest in the world.

The Emir of the UAE, Mohamed bin Zayedwas the main political supporter of the Saudi crown prince, Mohamed bin Salmanthe strong man of the Riyadh regime. Friends and rivals at the same time on battlefields with hundreds of thousands of dead. It is very unlikely that they will come to a direct war confrontation. In any case, if that were the case, the US would be there to prevent it.

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