Two days before the second round of the presidential elections in Portugal, the decisive factor stopped being the dispute between projects and became voter participation.
The heavy rains hitting the country have placed the abstention rate at the center of the electoral debate and reignited tensions between the two candidates running for President on Sunday (8).
Socialist António José Seguro, leader in the polls, recognized the risk that bad weather could reduce attendance at the polls and change the outcome of the election. On the other side, André Ventura, from the far-right Chega party, started to defend the postponement of elections in areas affected by flooding.
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The intense rains led city halls such as Alcácer do Sal, Pombal and Arruda dos Vinhos to reschedule voting for February 15th. Despite this, the government maintained the national calendar for the second round, arguing that it is up to local authorities to assess the need for specific postponements.
In Portugal, voting is not mandatory, which increases the potential impact of the weather on electoral participation.
Since the first round, the country has faced four consecutive storms — Leonardo, Kristin, Ingrid and Joseph — with winds of up to 160 km/h and flooding that led the government to declare a state of calamity in 68 municipalities.
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The climate crisis forced changes in the candidates’ agenda. Seguro adopted an institutional tone, highlighting how he would play the role of president in emergency situations, while Ventura used the damage to attack the government and reinforce his opposition rhetoric.
Survey of the newspaper Express in partnership with the broadcaster SIC indicates a comfortable victory for Seguro, with 62.6% of the votes, against 37.4% for Ventura. Favoritism, however, can have the opposite effect to that desired by the socialist campaign: the perception of a defined result tends to reduce voter turnout, especially in adverse conditions.
