The health of Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, one of Chechen’s most faithful allies, has raised alarm bells among analysts and political leaders. Several reports suggest that the 49-year-old leader suffers from serious kidney and pancreatic problems, and some intelligence services place him “at death’s door.” His disappearance, experts warn, could trigger a security crisis in the North Caucasus.
Kadyrov has governed since 2007 with the support of the Kremlin, after the second Chechen war. His power has been based on a tacit agreement with Moscow: absolute loyalty to Putin in exchange for internal autonomy, financing and a strong hand against any separatist movement.
According to analyst James Nixey, the pact was clear: Moscow would rebuild the war-ravaged republic and keep Kadyrov in power, while he was responsible for quelling any opposition. The result has been an authoritarian regime accused for years of murders, disappearances and human rights violations, but without major uprisings against the Kremlin.
Risk of violence and infighting
However, this balance could break if the Chechen leader dies. Abbas Gallyamov, Putin’s former adviser, warns that the Kadyrov regime has repressed numerous groups within Chechnya for years.
“For many years, Kadyrov oppressed all other Chechen social groups except his own and generated deep hatred,” he said. “No one can rule out that this hatred will spread after his death (…) an explosion of hatred,” he added. The Paper.
Experts fear an internal struggle for succession within the Kadyrov clan itself. Although the leader’s youngest son, Adam, has recently been promoted, his youth—he is 18—and reports of a recent accident complicate that option. Additionally, the Chechen constitution requires the leader to be at least 30 years old.
Some analysts believe that a regency controlled by trusted clan figures could be established, possibly with the approval of the Kremlin. Still, any successor would predictably be weaker than the current leader.
A strategic problem for Moscow
The impact of Kadyrov’s death could go beyond Chechnya. Academic Max Hess believes that the leader has acted as “glue” in the unstable North Caucasus, where there are historical resentments against the Russian central power.
A power vacuum in the region could give rise to insurgent or separatist movements, forcing Moscow to divert military resources at a time when many of its forces are deployed in Ukraine.
From kyiv, some political leaders believe that this scenario could benefit Ukraine. Deputy Oleksii Goncharenko noted that internal fighting in Chechnya or massive repression by Moscow would relieve pressure on the Ukrainian front.
In addition, Ukraine already has Chechen anti-Kremlin fighters in its ranks, and could support insurgent movements if a crisis occurs in the Caucasian republic.
A fragile balance
For almost two decades, Kadyrov has been the Kremlin’s main guarantor of stability in Chechnya, although at the cost of an iron regime. Its possible disappearance poses an uncertain scenario: internal struggles, regional insurgencies and a new front of instability for Russia.
For Putin, the death of his most implacable ally in the Caucasus could become a strategic problem in one of the territories historically most difficult to control.
