Brazilian production of oil should register growth of at least 55% in 2026. The sector’s optimism is based on the favorable weather conditions recorded between June and December 2025, a period in which the olive trees showed excellent flowering and good fruit formation. As a result, processing, which began this month, should occur at a good volume.
The assessment is from olive oil sommelier Davi Jonck, who has been following the national market for more than seven years. To the report from CNN Brazilthe expert explains that the estimates point to a national harvest between 300 thousand and 400 thousand liters of oil — a number considered positive given the conditions of the last three harvests, which fluctuated between a record and a strong decline.
In 2023, when the country achieved unprecedented production, the volume of olive oil reached 580 thousand liters. In 2024, however, a climate setback hampered the sector’s performance. Climate variations and the floods that hit Rio Grande do Sul — the country’s main producer — dropped production to 340 thousand liters. The problems extended to 2025, when the volume fell even further, to 194 thousand liters, according to data from the Brazilian Olive Oil Institute (Ibraoliva).
If Brazil manages to achieve its projections for this year, the sector will have recovered its momentum and returned to the average level observed before the floods in the State. Jonck remembers that the Serra da Mantiqueira, which comprises the States of Minas Gerais and São Paulo, has been standing out with award-winning regional brands, although the region has also suffered the adverse effects of the climate.
Even with the increase in national production, however, Brazilian supply is far from meeting domestic consumption. Brazil produces, on average, just 0.3% of all the olive oil it consumes. There are around 300 thousand liters extracted in the national territory compared to an annual consumption of approximately 100 million liters — an imbalance that, according to the sommelier, shows that “the math doesn’t add up”.
Prices in Brazil
Despite the prospect of a greater global volume of olive oil, there is no expectation of significant drop in product prices in supermarkets. “The prices for a half-liter bottle should range between R$30 and R$35, considering high-volume products, which are not gourmet. Award-winning and national olive oils have higher prices”, says Jonck.
Even with the recovery of supply in Europe, consumption is high in Brazil and production is less than 1%, maintaining pressure on values. In the case of Fazenda Sabiá, in Santo Antônio do Pinhal (SP), part of the stock in recent years was impacted by both the rise in prices and the effects of El Niño in 2024, which reduced the 2025 harvest by around 6 thousand bottles. The expectation is to recover volume this year.
In Minas Gerais, the government’s Sectoral Technical Chamber for Olive Culture highlighted that, unlike Rio Grande do Sul — which leads national production with large properties and flat areas — the state of Minas Gerais is marked by small and medium-sized olive groves on sloping terrain that is difficult to mechanize.
This characteristic increases production costs and helps explain why the artisanal olive oil reaches the shelves with prices between R$80 and R$120 for a 250 ml bottle. The information is part of the last bulletin for the year 2025 on expectations for the Minas Gerais olive oil market.
The biggest reason for prices not to experience a quick and sharp fall is in Europe, the main olive oil producing region in the world. The continent lost volume between 2023 and 2025, with less robust harvests in Italy, Portugal, Greece and Spain. The impact was passed on to trading partners, including Brazil, which imports European olive oil.
The most consistent recovery came from Spain, the largest global oil producer, which recorded a harvest 66% higher than in the immediately previous cycle. In 2025, Spanish production was between 1.38 million and 1.42 million tons, according to the International Olive Council. With this performance, European production exceeded 3.5 million tons in the same year, adds the agency.
Tradition and consumption
Olive trees planted in Brazil have roots in the tradition of Portuguese colonization. According to Jonck, the Portuguese people benefited from their gastronomic affinity to consolidate the presence of extra virgin and virgin olive oils from Portuguese brands on Brazilian shelves, although Portugal is not among the largest global producers.
According to 2024/25 data from the International Olive Oil Council — the entity’s most recent —, the largest olive oil producers are Spain, Türkiye and Egypt. Spain accounts for around 40% of world production, with approximately 1.29 million tons in the period. Next come Turkey, with 450 thousand tons, and Egypt, with around 40 thousand tons.
Curiosities about olive growing
The olive tree cycle is annual and begins in July, during winter, when the plant rests — a stage that induces flowering.
Olives are harvested between January and March, in summer, when they reach ripeness. During this process, the fruits change color, indicating that they are ready for oil extraction. Therefore, processed olives are black, not green.
There are specific machines for processing olive oil, mainly manufactured in Italy. The average price of this equipment is around R$1 million, according to Jonck.
The olive tree takes five to six years to start producing olives, but the most robust volumes appear after the seventh or eighth year of cultivation.
