Selic, GDP and exchange rate estimates remain stable, according to the Focus Bulletin
The median of the Focus report for the 2026 IPCA fell from 3.99% to 3.97%. The rate is 0.53 percentage points below the target ceiling of 4.50%. A month ago, it was 4.05%. Considering only the 63 estimates updated in the last five business days, the measure rose from 3.90% to 3.96%.
The projection for the of 2027 continued at 3.80%, for the 14th week in a row. Considering only the 56 estimates updated in the last five business days, the measure rose from 3.66% to 3.80%.
The IPCA ended 2025 with an accumulated increase of 4.26%, as announced by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The result was below the latest Focus median, which predicted an increase of 4.31%, and the Central Bank estimate for the period, an increase of 4.4%.
According to the trajectory disclosed in the statement from the January meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom), the BC predicts that the IPCA will end 2026 with an increase of 3.4% and expects inflation in 12 months to reach 3.2% in the relevant horizon, currently located in the third quarter of 2027.
From 2025 onwards, the inflation target became continuous, based on the IPCA accumulated over 12 months. The center is 3%, with a tolerance of 1.5 percentage points more or less. If inflation stays outside this range for six consecutive months, the BC is considered to have missed the target.
In this Monday’s Focus, projections for the IPCA for 2028 and 2029 remained at 3.50%, for the 14th and 23rd consecutive week, respectively.
Selic remains at 12.25%
The median of the Focus report for the at the end of 2026 it continued at 12.25% for the 7th week in a row. Considering only the 77 estimates updated in the last five business days, the median rose from 12.0% to 12.25%.
The projection for the end of 2027 remained at 10.50% for the 52nd week in a row. Considering only the 71 estimates updated in the last five business days, the median rose from 10.00% to 10.50%.
The median for Selic at the end of 2028 remained at 10.00%. A month ago, it was at 9.88%. For 2029, the median remained at 9.50% for the 15th week in a row.
In January, the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) decided to maintain the Selic rate at 15% for the fifth time in a rowbut indicated that the process of cutting interest rates could begin at the next meeting, in March.
“The Committee expects, if the expected scenario is confirmed, to begin easing monetary policy at its next meeting, but reinforces that it will maintain the appropriate restriction to ensure the convergence of inflation to the target,” said the minutes of the decision.
GDP growth projection remains at 1.80%
The median of the Focus report for the in 2026 it continued at 1.80%, for the 9th week in a row. Considering only the 38 projections updated in the last five business days, which are more sensitive to news, the estimate fell from 1.82% to 1.79%.
The Central Bank (BC) increased its growth estimate for the Brazilian economy this year, from 2.0% to 2.3%, in the Monetary Policy Report (RPM) for the fourth quarter. According to the municipality, the increase reflected the revision in the historical series of the Quarterly National Accounts (CNT), which especially affected the growth of agriculture in the first half of the year, and a result for the third quarter slightly above expectations.
Focus’s intermediate estimate for Brazilian economic growth in 2027 also remained stable at 1.80%, for the 6th week in a row. Considering only the 34 projections updated in the last five business days, it also remained at 1.80%.
The medians for GDP growth in 2028 and 2029 remained at 2.00%, for the 100th and 47th week in a row, respectively.
Dollar at the end of 2026 remains at R$5.50
The median of the Focus report for the dollar exchange rate at the end of 2026 remained at R$5.50 for the 17th consecutive week. The projection for the currency at the end of 2027 remained at R$5.50, same level as it was four weeks ago.
By the end of 2028, it fluctuated from R$5.52 to R$5.50. A month ago, it was R$5.52. For 2029, it remained at R$5.57, the same level it was at four weeks ago.
The American currency closed 2025 quoted at R$5.4840, with an accumulated loss of 11.18% against the real. The appreciation of the Brazilian currency was motivated by the global weakening of the dollar and the attractiveness of carry trade operationsin the wake of the strong monetary tightening cycle led by the Central Bank, which took the Selic rate to 15% per year.
The annual exchange rate projection published in Focus is calculated based on the average for the rate in December, and not on the projected value for the last business day of each year, as it was until 2020
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