From the “ugly duckling” in the PS to record consecration. The route from Seguro to Belém

Despite having many critics and skeptics within the PS itself, António José Seguro achieved a historic victory and even obtained the highest number of votes ever in a presidential election.

Nobody thought much about him when he announced his candidacy. After all, at the time of the first survey, in November 2024, António José Seguro had less than 5% of voting intentions.

Even within the PS itself, a party of which it is still a member, there was great hesitation and even total rejection on the part of some sectors. After Seguro stated at the end of 2024 that he was considering moving forward, socialist leaders immediately tried to calm the pressures to support him, pressure that came from influential figures in the party, such as Francisco Assis.

“The time for the candidates to demonstrate has begun, the time for the parties to decide has not yet begun,” said a socialist leadership source at the time. “It didn’t take me by surprise. After 10 years, it has not improved“, criticized another PS leader.

The mere mention made by Pedro Nuno Santos of the name of António José Seguro as one of the possible PS candidates in an interview was enough to upset his socialist leadership, who understood the reference as unwanted encouragement. At the time, he spoke to the vast majority of members of this socialist leadership body and none of them were fans of Seguro’s progress, with some even describing him as “quite close to the PSD“. “It caused a lot of joy on the right and is a good reason not to be a PS candidate”, said a source.

“It wasn’t launched, it was mentioned, just like others”, said a leader to Renascença, with another stressing that “that’s a bad payer’s excuse”. Deputy Isabel Moreira also went so far as to say publicly that “António José Seguro is not the most suitable person, with the best profile”.

Given his history with Seguro, it wasn’t too surprising that Pedro Nuno Santos quickly tried to put out the fire. Remember that the party’s general secretary at the time supported António Costa in the primaries against Seguro in 2014. “We are not at that stage at the moment. The PS will have its time to make decisions”, he stated.

Faced with Seguro’s movements, socialists who were not his supporters pointed to Mário Centeno as a “buffer” for the ambitions of the Seguristas. “It is now up to sensible majority of the PS make a buffer to this. It’s time for Centeno to say that he’s also considering it, because he is. Before this becomes an uncontrollable wave”, said a leader.

When Centeno did not advance, attention turned to Antonio Vitorino. When Vitorino did not move forward, there were still those who spoke of Augusto Santos Silva — who was for some time considered the favorite during the PS’s short-lived absolute majority.

When Santos Silva did not advance, there was still talk of António Sampaio da Nóvoawho had already run in 2016. However, sources interviewed said that the former dean was hesitating because he believed that the PS apparatus would support Seguro — the opposite of the 2016 scenario, when the socialist machine supported Sampaio da Nóvoa and the majority of the security supporters were with Maria de Belém.

Other names have been suggested in the past, such as Ana Gomes, Elisa Ferreira or even the UN Secretary General António Guterres. None came forward.

Until after the resignation of Pedro Nuno Santos, the more centrist José Luís Carneiro continued to postpone the announcement of support for a presidential candidate. Confirmation, apparently reluctant, ended up appearing in October 2025.

As the pre-campaign progressed and his rise in the polls, Seguro was, one by one, winning over the most skeptical and gaining support within the party, including Pedro Nuno Santos. This hesitation even ended up giving strength to the new President’s repeated descriptions of his candidacy as “non-partisan” and “without strings attached”.

The way to Belém

With a degree in International Relations from the Autonomous University of Lisbon, Seguro’s interest in politics began early. A socialist activist since 1980, Seguro built his political career within the party, first as general secretary of Socialist Youth (1990-1994) and also as president of the National Youth Council and the European Union Youth Forum. In addition, he was also vice-president of the International Union of Socialist Youth.

A socialist activist since 1980, Seguro built his political career within the party, first as general secretary of Socialist Youth (1990-1994) and later as general secretary of the PS.

Among the remarkable episodes of his leadership at JS is “Let me seduce you“, a condom distribution campaign to raise awareness about AIDS prevention, at a time of growing epidemic. The initiative generated strong controversy, especially among conservative sectors and the Catholic Church, but consolidated the image of a leader committed to social and public health causes.

In 1995, Seguro joined the Government and became one of the closest elements to António Guterres, integrating the trusted political nucleus of São Bento. He was Secretary of State for Youth and, later, Deputy Secretary of State for Guterres. After a stint in the European Parliament, he came to secretary general of the PS in 2011after the departure of José Sócrates.

One of the most defining moments in his political career came in 2014, when, as general secretary of the PS, he decided that the party would abstain from voting on the State Budget. The decision, justified as placing the country’s interest above party interests, triggered strong internal protests.

This objection was headed by António Costaat the time Mayor of Lisbon, who asked for the resignation of the secretary general and publicly demanded the convening of an extraordinary congress for new primary elections. Seguro responded to the challenge and called the primaries, but ended up losing them and left office after the defeat.

This defeat ended up dictating a break from political life. In the 10 years since his departure from the leadership of the PS, António José Seguro dedicated himself mainly to his academic career and taught at the Universidade Autónoma de Lisboa (UAL) and at the Instituto Superior de Ciências Sociais e Políticas (ISCSP).

Now, Seguro has returned to politics with a bang. And, if there were still skeptics after his victory in the first round, there must be few left, after his victory against André Ventura in the second round, with 66.8% of the votes and the record for President elected with the most votes in Portugal.