The Moon may gain a new crater at the end of this decade. Asteroid 2024 YR4, identified at the end of 2024, has a 3.8% probability of colliding with the natural satellite on December 22, 2032, according to calculations by CNEOS, a NASA center dedicated to monitoring objects near Earth.
The celestial body is between 53 and 67 meters in diameter, a size comparable to that of a medium-sized building. The estimates consider measurements made by the James Webb Space Telescope and ground-based observatories until early April.
The European Space Agency states that the percentage should remain practically stable until new observations are carried out, which should only occur in 2028, when the object will become visible again under suitable conditions.
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For Earth, the scenario is different. The chance of direct impact is less than 0.002%, equivalent to one possibility in around 59 thousand. In statistical terms, this represents more than a 99.998% probability that the asteroid will pass without posing a threat to the planet.
Even though objects of this size do not cause global effects, they can cause significant damage in localized areas. In 1908, an air explosion over Tunguska, Siberia, devastated thousands of square kilometers of forest.
More recently, in 2013, an approximately 18-meter meteor exploded over Chelyabinsk, Russia, releasing energy estimated to be equivalent to dozens of nuclear bombs and injuring around 1,600 people.
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Even in the event of a collision with the Moon, NASA rules out any change in the satellite’s orbit. If the impact is confirmed, it should represent a rare scientific opportunity to study, in real time, the dynamics of space shocks — information considered strategic in the development of technologies aimed at planetary defense.
